Sha Tin might hold all the Group One racing, but Happy Valley is set to provide this season’s incredible trainers’ championship fight with perhaps its most decisive swing when the numbers are crunched.
Much of this season has seen Mark Newnham and Caspar Fownes trading blows at the top of the table, with David Hayes within stalking distance an ominous few winners behind.
Danny Shum Chap-shing and Francis Lui Kin-wai have kept themselves in the conversation a further few winners back from him, while the ever-dangerous John Size has kept his powder dry within pouncing range.
When looking at the bare numbers, after a brilliant Happy Valley treble on Wednesday night, Shum now leads the pack by two winners on 54, with Newnham (52), Fownes (51), Hayes (48), Lui (47) and Size (45) all in the conversation for the title.
The winning of the championship, if it did go the way of Shum for the first time or Fownes, would certainly be their Happy Valley form.
Of Shum’s 54 winners this season, 31 of them have come at the Valley, while the aptly nicknamed “King of the Valley” Fownes has gained a staggering 35 of his 51 winners at the city circuit.
Both of those trainers have, in comparison, struggled at Sha Tin, with Shum training 13 turf and 10 all-weather winners up there, while Fownes has gained 11 and 5 respectively.
For Shum in particular, the last six Happy Valley meetings have seen him round up a staggering 12 winners, with only one of the six seeing him leave empty handed.
On the flipside, Newnham has punched in 16 winners at the Valley, which includes a career-best five-timer from earlier in the campaign.
Newnham, who added Hong Kong Group One glory with My Wish and Derby success with Invincible Ibis to his CV, would be winning his maiden championship at the third attempt, which would be a truly staggering feat.
Lui is another with a big discrepancy when it comes to Sha Tin and Happy Valley winners, with a winner on Wednesday bringing his total to 13 for the campaign.
33 of his victories have come on the Sha Tin turf and if Lui is to take another championship, it will be Sha Tin where he wins or loses it.
“I’m trying to get there step by step, it’s such a competitive championship and many could win it. It’s exciting and I hope I’ll be involved at the very end,” Lui said after Packing Angel’s Wednesday win.
Hayes has had the most balanced season in terms of winners across the tracks, with 26 Sha Tin winners matching up to 22 at the Valley.
The win condition for Hayes, who is trying to win his first championship since a pair of title wins in 1997-98 and 1998-99, is the young horses he is still yet to unleash. If several of those prove to be strong, it might give him the extra firepower he needs to surge into the lead.
He will never admit he is involved in the fight, but the current title holder Size cannot be discounted, regardless of the fact he is nine winners back from Shum.
In characteristic fashion, Size started off the season slowly and although his classic midseason surge did not result in the amount of winners it usually does, it has put him within striking distance.
The 13-time champion trainer will have his horses rock-hard fit from now until the end of the campaign and a total of 53 seconds this campaign shows that even a slight change of fortune will bring him firmly into play.
Though, like several of his colleagues, a total of 11 Happy Valley winners opposed to 36 at Sha Tin could make all the difference in the closing stages.
It might not have the glitz and glamour of its counterpart, but the Valley is once again proving to be a seismic difference in a race of likely inches.
