The Group One Hong Kong Classic Cup (1,800m) has almost been synonymous with upset results since its inception but that won't stop punters descending on the logical favourite, Able Friend.

In a race without leaders - another ingredient that often opens a race to upsets - John Moore-trained Able Friend (Joao Moreira) has the tools to overcome a muddling speed that might not even test his ability to be strong at a new distance.

When potential leader Helene Super Star was scratched on Friday with another dose of the mucopus that has dogged him so far in this part of the world, that left the Classic Cup thirsty for a frontrunner, and that role might fall to Dr Good Habit (Mirco Demuro) or Tony Cruz-trained outsider, Crazy Buddies.

Although Crazy Buddies settled past midfield from an outside draw over 1,600m on his local debut, a look at his form in Ireland shows he was often leading or amongst the frontrunners over middle distances and raced well.

When leaders are absent, the Tony Cruz yard often fills the void, as we saw in the Classic Mile when Photon Willie took up what looked a vacant leading role and turned it into the fastest Classic Mile ever run.

Able Friend hasn't been tried beyond 1,600m, but his win in that race coming off that hot pace, saw him strong enough at the finish to suggest the extra 200m won't concern him.

Fast or slow tempo, Able Friend usually begins well and does have the tactical speed to be put right on the pace or just behind it, if required, and that looks the right play from barrier six this afternoon.

He will be odds-on and the race has a shocking history of defeats for short-priced favourites in just an eight-year history, perhaps because this is usually the first time the Derby four-year-olds step beyond a mile and the 1,800m course can be a very different style of race.

Last year, we saw a hot pace come from nowhere in the Classic Mile, too, and most of those which raced close-up failed then turned things around sharply in the longer race.

Classic Mile failures It Has To Be You and President Lincoln posted the all-time record quinella dividend in the Cup, both starting over 100-1.

With that in mind, Sunday's race offers a similar prospect of improvement for Flagship Shine (Douglas Whyte), who overraced chasing Photon Willie three weeks ago.

Moore has said Flagship Shine will be switched off early and ridden quietly to see how he can get to the line. With no speed on, the worth of that change would be problematical but Flagship Shine's prior form was outstanding.