The journalists surrounding in-form trainer Paul O’Sullivan at Sha Tin on Sunday looking for some “I’ll win the championship” headline-making quotes were sorely disappointed.
Despite the Kiwi looming as a dark horse threat to the “big four” – John Moore, John Size, Caspar Fownes and Tony Cruz – with less than one third of the term remaining, it seems he is already thinking of next season and beyond.
Rather than talking up his title hopes, fourth-placed O’Sullivan, who moved within eight wins of leader Moore, instead pointed to the inexperienced and as yet unexposed make-up of his stable.
“I’m not thinking about championships at all,” he said. “Besides, more than a third of my stable are Ts and a lot haven’t even been touched yet.”
For newcomers, the “Ts” are his horses with freeze brands beginning with the letter T – the newest horses in town, those who have arrived since the end of last season.
Those new horses could hold the key to O’Sullivan maintaining a foothold in the top half of the championship and his amazing turnaround through 2014-15 not being a “one and done” display that results in a sharp drop-off in output 12 months later.
They say in life there is a price to pay for everything. In Hong Kong, one of the consequences of a successful season can be a dramatic slip back down the standings.
It is no coincidence that in the last decade, no trainer has won back-to-back championships.
The fact races are almost exclusively handicaps provides an in-built safeguard against year-on-year dominance, kind of like a salary cap that can’t be cheated, at least not long term. It’s simple – wins mean a rise in ratings and it becomes harder to get your head in front.
In most recent seasons it has been almost impossible for a trainer to win the title without running a horse when he otherwise might not. An extra win might mean short-term glory and a place in the record books, but it also can result in a horse with a maxed-out rating and perhaps some ill-effects of a run too many, especially in the oppressive heat and humidity of June and July.
But it seems even Size, the measure of consistency, who appears to put his horses long-term future above all else, isn’t immune to the cyclical nature of Hong Kong racing.
Although the master tipped the world upside down by winning three straight upon arrival, he won every second season after that as his fortunes ebbed and flowed. Knowing how and when to re-stock, when to let go of an older horse, or inventing a new way for it to win, is an art form.
The best example of the price one pays for over-extending was the only man to be champion in the last decade not named Size, Moore, Cruz or Fownes – Dennis Yip Chor-hong.
It’s hard to explain the magnitude of Yip’s upset: maybe like Sunderland winning the English Premier League, or a bottom seed sneaking into the play-offs and winning the NBA Championship.
We don’t begrudge Yip the success – it was the single greatest sporting moment we’ve witnessed in person and he forever will be known as a champion, a tag which brings a cachet all of its own.
Yip’s championship was built on older, underrated handicappers winning multiple races, and required an “all-hands-on-deck” approach over the final few months. There wasn’t much room left for planning and last season Yip, left with an inexperienced roster, slipped to equal 10th as he trained half as many winners, 35, as he did in his triumphant, history-making effort.
O’Sullivan has experienced life at both ends of the spectrum and seems intent on maintaining a middle ground. He will let his seasoned handicappers take him as far as they can, but at the same time multiple winners like Fay Deep, Celestial Smile and Star Majestic – honest toilers unlikely to ever hit triple figures – are taking the pressure off his younger horses with nine wins between them this season.
Success attracts more horses, but O’Sullivan has admitted he has knocked back the chance to train stable transfers in favour of buying new stock and he has 22 horses (out of 60) with T brands.
Of them, 12 are unraced Private Purchase Griffins, another two are Private Purchases yet to race and the remaining eight have had four or less starts. Two of them are so untouched they don’t even have names yet and are just known as T321 (a three-year-old by Swiss Ace) and T358 (a three-year-old by Murtajill).
The bottom-heavy team bodes well for the future, given that he doesn’t have to squeeze the newcomers for quick results to take the pressure off. He has wins on the board and a flagship horse like Aerovelocity leading the way,
When Yip won the title he hired out the Sha Tin parade ring for a celebration party that will go down in history – for those who can remember what happened, that is.
The trainer arrived via horse-drawn carriage to rapturous applause and serenaded guests with his surprising karaoke skills. He even released a pair of limited edition, custom-made jeans marking the championship win.
This isn’t a knock on Yip (we even have a pair of said jeans, although they are more likely to be signed and framed than worn). Good luck to him.
Although O’Sullivan isn’t likely to achieve the same glory with a roster heavily weighted towards the future, he seems a better chance of not suffering a hangover next season.
