bodyType

customContents

entityId

printArticlePageQuery

filter

article

body

urlAlias

articleSectionsContent

articleSeoArticle

articleSourceHeaderArticle

contentSchemaRenderContent

contentSubHeadlineContent

contentHeadlineContent

mainImagePrintArticleArticle

authorBlockPrintArticleArticle

contentSponsorTagContent

articlePianoPaywallContent

scmpYoutubeContent

hooksTrackPageViewArticle

query printArticlePageQuery(
  $entityId: String!
  $customContents: [CustomContentInput]
  $bodyType: BodyFormatTypeEnum
) {
  article(filter: {entityId: $entityId}) {
    entityId
    body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
      json
    }
    urlAlias
    ...articleSectionsContent
    ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4
    ...articleSourceHeaderArticle
    ...contentSchemaRenderContent
    ...contentSubHeadlineContent
    ...contentHeadlineContent
    ...mainImagePrintArticleArticle
    ...authorBlockPrintArticleArticle
    ...contentSponsorTagContent
    ...articlePianoPaywallContent
    ...scmpYoutubeContent
    ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle
    id
  }
}

fragment articlePianoPaywallContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent
}

fragment articleSectionsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection
      ...entityLink
      name
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment articleSeoArticle_3o8td4 on Article {
  ...hooksArticleSeoArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle
  entityId
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
  summary {
    text
  }
  subHeadline {
    text
  }
  body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
    text
  }
  keywords
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  topics {
    name
    entityId
    id
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  images {
    style(filter: {style: "768x768"}) {
      url
    }
  }
  readingTime
}

fragment articleSourceHeaderArticle on Article {
  urlAlias
  ...entityLink
}

fragment authorBlockPrintArticleArticle on Article {
  ...defaultArticleDateContent
  ...authorNamesArticle
}

fragment authorNameAuthor on Author {
  ...entityLink
  name
  entityUuid
}

fragment authorNamesArticle on Article {
  authorLocations
  authors {
    entityId
    location
    ...authorNameAuthor
    id
  }
}

fragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  socialHeadline
  ...contentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
}

fragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
    id
  }
  sections {
    value {
      relatedNewsletters {
        ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
        id
      }
      id
    }
  }
  ... on Article {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...blockquoteQuoteContent
  ...imageContent
  ...inlineWidgetContent
  ...photoGalleryWidgetContent
  ...scmpYoutubeContent
}

fragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  shortUrl
  socialHeadline
  headline
}

fragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  subHeadline {
    json
  }
  summary {
    json
  }
  ...contentSchemaRenderContent
}

fragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent
}

fragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  __typename
  entityId
  entityUuid
  urlAlias
  urlRedirect {
    toUrl
    id
  }
  application {
    entityId
    id
  }
  ... on Section {
    fullSectionPath {
      entityId
      id
    }
    parentSection
  }
  ...helpersAppBarVariantBase
  ...helpersApplicationBase
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...helpersSectionContent
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
}

fragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {
  name
}

fragment helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle on Article {
  entityId
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  disableOffPlatformContent
  sponsorType
  published
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
}

fragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {
  flattenTypeIds
  liveArticle {
    status
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    paywallTypes {
      entityUuid
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        entityId
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {
  entityId
  name
  alternativeName
  description {
    text
  }
  summary {
    text
  }
  homepageDescription {
    text
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {
  authors {
    types
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    sponsor {
      ...sponsorTagSponsor
      name
      type
      id
    }
    id
  }
  ... on Article {
    sponsorType
  }
  ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent
}

fragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdDate
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
}

fragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle
  entityId
  headline
  socialHeadline
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
  images {
    generic_og: style(filter: {style: "og_image_scmp_generic"}) {
      url
    }
    styles(filter: {styles: ["og_image_posties_article", "og_postmag", "og_image_style", "og_image_scmp_analysis", "og_image_scmp_explainer", "og_image_scmp_editorial", "og_image_scmp_fact_check", "og_image_scmp_debate", "og_image_scmp_live", "og_image_scmp_obituary", "og_image_scmp_opinion", "og_image_scmp_review", "og_image_scmp_series", "og_image_scmp_generic"]}) {
      url
      style
    }
    type
  }
  urlAlias
}

fragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        name
        entityId
        description {
          text
        }
        id
      }
    }
    ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  }
  flag
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  ...hooksContentHelperContent
}

fragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle
  ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle
  ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle
  flag
}

fragment hooksPaywallPromiseContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
}

fragment hooksTrackPageViewArticle on Article {
  entityId
  publishedDate
  headline
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  entityUuid
}

fragment imageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  ...checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent
}

fragment inlineWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent
}

fragment mainImagePrintArticleArticle on Article {
  images {
    title
    url
    isSlideshow
    size_652x446: style(filter: {style: "652x446"}) {
      url
    }
  }
}

fragment photoGalleryDialogContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment photoGalleryWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...photoGalleryDialogContent
}

fragment scmpYoutubeContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  publishedDate
}

fragment sponsorTagSponsor on Sponsor {
  name
  type
  images {
    url
  }
}


sections

types

disableOffPlatformContent

sponsorType

published

headline

socialHeadline

authors

images

publishedDate

updatedDate

summary

subHeadline

keywords

topics

readingTime

authorLocations

entityUuid

Andrew Hammond

As the Ukraine war nears its 500th day, the key issue on the minds of international policymakers is what impact the extraordinary recent mutiny of the Wagner mercenary group will have on the conflict.
The uprising, which exposed the growing internal fissures within the country, will do nothing to strengthen Russia’s already faltering war efforts. Yet its wider impact, including for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hold on power, will not be fully clear for weeks to come. This despite some instant assessments – including that of former Russian prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov – that this is the “beginning of the end”.
Putin’s political longevity has been remarkable in the last quarter of a century. While he is clearly down and badly weakened, he cannot yet be counted out.
One factor that will assist Putin is support from foreign countries, including staunch partners such as China and other friendly nations such as Turkey. China’s foreign ministry said on June 25 that the country supported Russia in “protecting national stability”. Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang met Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko that day.
The Wagner mutiny comes at a time when the initiative in the war was already very much with Ukraine as it moved forward with its counteroffensive. Kyiv will hope it can make even bigger gains than it had previously hoped for if disarray sets in more widely among pro-Moscow forces.
Timeline of how Russia’s mercenary revolt unfolded
If Putin remains in power, which seems most likely for the foreseeable future, and the Russian war effort continues apace, the most likely scenario remains the conflict following the trajectory of a war of attrition, albeit with significant twists and turns. This seems especially likely while both sides are still prepared to expend massive resources.
Some Western intelligence sources estimate that more than 200,000 Russian soldiers have already died on the battlefield, one of the chief gripes of Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. This illustrates the terrible human price Putin is prepared to have his nation pay in pursuit of his war objectives. Meanwhile, the West has committed vast sums to Ukraine in aid and military support.


Historically, wars tend to end when one side imposes its will on the other on the battlefield and then at the negotiating table, or when both sides embrace a compromise they deem preferable to fighting. While one of these outcomes could emerge – for instance, if the Ukrainian counteroffensive makes spectacular gains or the Putin regime implodes – this appeared highly uncertain at the time of writing amid fast-moving events in late June.
While a continued war of attrition could imply a degree of stability in the conflict, the events of recent days show this is not true and the level and range of risks actually remain exceptionally high. This is why the outcome remains so unpredictable, a factor not helped by Russia’s reckless sabre-rattling around its potential use of nuclear weaponry and disregard for nuclear power sites.
Pessimistic as this prospect of a continued war of attrition might seem, with the human cost – including for millions of refugees – largest of all, there are at least two other plausible outcomes. First, there could be a slim but significant window of opportunity for peace talks opening up, especially with heavier casualties taken by each side.
Belarus strongman sows future peril with Wagner PR success
Although neither Moscow nor Kyiv is showing strong signs of wanting to negotiate, this could change. On Ukraine’s side, for instance, if its much-anticipated counteroffensive yields little fruit, pressure could grow to explore a peace deal. There would be a great deal of opposition to this, of course, but a pathway could be found.
For instance, key Western leaders could highlight to Ukraine that, during the Cold War, the US-led alliance did not recognise Soviet control of the three Baltic states. Ultimately, these countries emerged free and democratic after the end of the Cold War. The potential parallel with those parts of Ukraine now occupied by pro-Moscow forces could be strengthened with generous Western construction assistance and security guarantees for Kyiv.
A peace deal could also have growing utility for Russia and Putin – should he remain in power – as he fashions his political strategy for potential re-election in next spring’s presidential election. Putin could seek to argue, despite the manifest failures of Moscow’s military campaign, that Russia’s mission has been accomplished with the seizure of significant slices of Ukrainian territory.
Another factor that could increase prospects for peace is the growing interest of China in the conflict. President Xi Jinping, who has already set out a vague peace plan, has the most influence within Russia of any world leader.

However, Putin’s growing weakness also raises the worst-case scenario of further escalation of violence. If he chooses to raise the stakes, the conflict could even escalate beyond Ukraine to involve Nato countries.
While this still seems unlikely to many, it cannot be dismissed given the volatility of the situation. The transatlantic alliance is doing what it can to support Ukraine without getting itself entangled in direct military confrontation, but miscalculation is a real concern.
Such an outcome is still not the central scenario, though. While Putin remains in power, the most likely outcome is that a war of attrition grinds on.
Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics


Wagner mutiny highlights Putin’s weakness, but outcome of Ukraine war remains unpredictable

Members of the Wagner group stand on the balcony of the circus building in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24.  Yevgeny Prigozhin, commander of the mercenary group, had ordered his troops to march on Moscow but abruptly reached a deal with the Kremlin to go into exile and sounded the retreat on June 25. Photo: AFP

A woman stands next to cardboard cut-outs of Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and President Xi Jinping in Moscow on June 14. Photo: AFP

Opinion

Comment

News

World

Russia & Central Asia

If Putin remains in power and the Russian war effort continues apace, a war of attrition looks likely, although there is a slim but significant window of opportunity for peace talks as casualties rise
However, the worst-case scenario of further escalation of violence has not been closed off


If Putin remains in power and the Russian war effort continues apace, a war of attrition looks likely, although there is a slim but significant window of opportunity for peace talks as casualties rise. However, the worst-case scenario of further escalation of violence has not been closed off


Ukraine war

Ukraine

Russia

China-Russia relations

Diplomacy

War and conflict

Vladimir Putin

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Opinion | Wagner mutiny highlights Putin’s weakness, but outcome of Ukraine war remains unpredictable

If Putin remains in power and the Russian war effort continues apace, a war of attrition looks likely, although there is a slim but significant window of opportunity for peace talks as casualties rise However, the worst-case scenario of further escalation of violence has not been closed off

If Putin remains in power and the Russian war effort continues apace, a war of attrition looks likely, although there is a slim but significant window of opportunity for peace talks as casualties rise

However, the worst-case scenario of further escalation of violence has not been closed off