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Andrew Hammond
Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS (the Centre for International Affairs, Diplomacy and Strategy) at the London School of Economics and Political Science. He was formerly a UK government special adviser at a time when Britain last held the presidency of the European Union.
This debate matters, given the increased influence of the office and Donald Trump’s advanced age.
Having come to power on the back of big promises of change, Labour will look to capitalise on the disorientation of Conservatives to deliver.
While the war sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is unlikely to end soon, European leaders already have an eye on reconstruction.
While the Conservatives should never be underestimated as a political force, the party is badly divided heading into the six-week election campaign. Try as he might, Sunak has been unable to change the UK’s political weather.
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The next phase of the Aukus pact could involve deepened cybersecurity and naval cooperation with other countries such as Japan and Canada. Despite questions over issues like Taiwan, the pact has room to grow and is considered important to UK, US and Australian leadership.
The state of the defence of Ukraine and the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House have sparked new fears and planning among Nato members. If others join Poland in increasing military spending and prioritising defence, there could still be an opportunity for intra-alliance harmony with the US.
Kremlin has tried to blame Kyiv for the terror attack, perhaps to divert difficult questions over why Russia’s security services failed to prevent it. With Russia likely to step up its war effort, the conflict is shaping up to be a war of attribution, the outcome of which remains highly unpredictable.
Given growing geopolitical interest in the Arctic Circle, it is no surprise that the EU is raising its profile in Greenland. The EU is also sealing a raw materials partnership with Greenland, to reduce its reliance on China.
The prospect of Donald Trump returning to power is just one source of uncertainty pushing Europe to prepare for a tumultuous era to 2030 and beyond. The EU must also contend with an increasingly complex geopolitical environment and waning economic competitiveness.
Hopes of a trade deal between the European and Latin American blocs have faded amid resistance from Argentina and France. Talks could still deliver a result, but the political landscape could be much different by then with elections next year in Europe and the United States.
Brussels has sought to bring the bloc together around a stronger policy towards China, as Beijing’s influence grows across Europe. However, there are clear differences between hawkish Eastern European nations and Western European economies which do more business with China.
Once a diplomatic afterthought outside Europe, Africa is now a subject of attention for a range of global powers including the US, China and Russia. Interest is only likely to grow, especially if its emerging markets fulfil their significant economic potential.
If Putin remains in power and the Russian war effort continues apace, a war of attrition looks likely, although there is a slim but significant window of opportunity for peace talks as casualties rise. However, the worst-case scenario of further escalation of violence has not been closed off
Demography is not necessarily destiny, and Indian policymakers must find a way to turn this new-found status into a boon for the people. To secure significant dividends, they need to enhance political governance, boost social spending and infrastructure and bolster regulatory regimes.
Senior European leaders have travelled to Beijing hoping to chip away at China’s support for Russia. However, economic ties between China and Russia have deepened over the past years, and are underscored by a warm relationship between the countries’ leaders.
Britain has punched above its weight for years despite losing its status as a great power, but its global role is under increasing scrutiny. Domestic struggles and external challenges now leave it less able to bolster international security and economic prosperity when both are fragile.
The National Security and Investment Act gives the UK government powers to review, block and even undo investments on national security grounds. It is clear that ministers are likely to increasingly use these new powers given the growing range of geopolitical, economic and technological challenges facing the country.
The UN biodiversity conference in Montreal could be as consequential for nature as the Paris agreement still might be for climate action. However, the fact that few heads of state are attending the much-delayed meeting does not bode well for success.
The endless cycle of climate talks with no progress sadly looks set to continue at this month’s summit in Egypt. The only hope of a better outcome lies with the US and China putting aside their rivalry to jointly support a more ambitious climate agenda.
Ensuring energy security and agreeing on measures against Russia are high on the agenda in Brussels, but equally significant is the EU’s stance on China. Relations between China and the EU have been deteriorating for years and could soon get worse amid talk of Europe ‘increasing realism’ and ‘leaving naivety behind’.
The budget crisis is the worst possible start to Truss’s premiership, fuelling concerns about the leadership’s political and economic judgment. The odds appear to be growing that the Conservatives could lose a large number of seats at the next election and cede control to Labour.
As the UK prepares to unveil emergency economic measures, tax cuts seem all but certain – what remains hazy is how they will be paid for and whether they will bring down inflation. A lack of detail on government spending and plans to boost growth is also fuelling uncertainty amid economic hardship.
The leadership race has been driven by debate about taxation, inflation and the Thatcherite legacy. It bears noting that the tax-cutting plans of Liz Truss, the front runner, are expected to translate into lower public spending and even austerity.
While EU support for Ukraine remains strong, Europeans are divided over long-term goals, with some wanting a swift return to peace and others calling for a decisive defeat of Russia. This split may widen as the war drags on, with both Moscow and Kyiv willing to pour more resources into the conflict.
The fate of many of the world’s poorest rests on the safe passage of millions of tonnes of grain out of Ukraine, where it has been stuck since Russia’s invasion. Yet there are fears that even if exports resume, the damage to global food security has already been done, and a major crisis affecting millions is looming.
Despite criticism from some quarters that it should stick to economics, the G7 has often been at its best during turbulent times. The grouping’s long-standing engagement with security issues and the uncertainty in Ukraine suggest its geopolitical role will only continue to grow.
While the Ukraine crisis has temporarily pushed the scandal out of the limelight, the fines slapped on Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak for breaking their own Covid-19 rules further eroded public support for the government. They are unlikely to be enough to spark a revolt among the ruling Conservatives, but that may change if the party does badly in next month’s local elections.
In a world where high risk is the new normal, this week’s Munich Security Conference will look at how best to overcome the mood of ‘collective helplessness’, given that the resources, strategies and instruments to tackle the challenges are available.
Biden faces a tall task in generating unity in the face of Republican voters convinced his presidency is illegitimate. His State of the Union address is a chance to establish stronger governing themes and find common ground with Republicans in Congress.
The underlying macro dynamic at the summit is a potentially historic power shift, as Germany ushers in new leadership and struggles to avoid recession while developments in Hungary and Poland could prove challenging for the bloc.
