Far-right’s rise in Europe a warning signal for an EU beset with challenges

The rightward shift in the political landscape in Europe reflects the changing basis of political support and action in the EU
This trend suggests next year’s European Parliament elections could lead to further political shocks and gains for the far right

James F. Downes

Published: 12:30am, 28 Jul 2023

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The far right is on the march across Europe in 2023. Recent election results have seen many far-right parties increasing both their vote and seat shares across Europe. In western Europe, countries such as Italy, Austria, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Greece have all witnessed a rise in support for parties of the far right.

In eastern European countries such as Hungary and Poland, far-right parties are in control of the government. Northern Europe has also seen the rise of far-right parties, most recently in countries such as Sweden and Finland.

Most significantly, the snap September 2022 general election in Italy heralded a new era for that country’s politics, with a far-right coalition government led by the new Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, featuring her far-right party Brothers of Italy along with Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party, with the support of the conservative centre-right party Forza Italia.

Even more astonishing in Italy is the fact that, since the end of World War II in 1945, the nation has had 68 governments. That’s an average of one about every 1.1 years.

Parties on the far right of the political spectrum in Europe have historically tended to concentrate on three core issues. First, nativism, with a focus on protecting their own ethnic in-group against perceived ethnic out-groups such as immigrants.

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Wave of migrants trying to enter EU at Belarus-Poland border trapped in freezing weather

Second, these parties tend to hold authoritarian policies, such as being tough on crime and promoting issues of law and order. Third, parties of the far right in Europe often advocate populist messaging techniques, such as claiming to represent ordinary people against what they deem to be the corrupt political elite in society.

So what is new, then, about the rise of the modern far right in Europe? It used to be the case that far-right parties were seen as one-trick ponies, essentially focusing on single-issue areas, such as anti-immigration policies or opposition to the European Union (EU).

This is no longer the case. What we are seeing play out in front of our eyes in Europe is a diversification of far-right party strategies. Far-right parties across the continent are no longer simply anti-immigrant or anti-EU.

Many have changed their electoral strategies, seeking to offer a broader platform to voters. Newer strategies include focusing on issues such as eco-nationalism, with an eye towards restricting immigration or re-establishing national sovereignty away from the EU.

How climate change is helping to drive the rise of Germany’s far right

A second strategy has been for several far-right parties in Europe – such as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party in France and Salvini’s League party in Italy – to move away from advocating for a “hard” exit from the EU, known in political science as hard Euroscepticism. Instead, they seek to reform the EU from the inside by advocating a softer form of Euroscepticism via a more scaled-down EU.

How can mainstream parties on the left and right wings of the political spectrum in Europe respond to the challenge posed by the far right? Recent research I co-authored demonstrates how, during the 2015-18 European refugee crisis, governing mainstream centre-right parties across Europe (conservative and Christian Democrat) saw the threat posed by the far right on the issue of immigration and adopted tougher anti-immigrant positions to keep voters from drifting to far-right parties.

In the short term, this electoral strategy was successful for these centre-right parties, as some managed to remain in office and outperformed the far right in national parliamentary elections. However, in the longer term, this strategy is dangerous as it could cause the mainstream parties to reshape their ideology and become like the very far-right parties they aim to defeat.

Our analysis also identified a mainstreaming effect that has important implications for the future of liberal democracy across Europe. In Hungary, the formerly traditional centre-right conservative Fidesz has now become a fully fledged far-right party with virulently anti-immigrant policies.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (right) speaks to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban as they arrive at a meeting of the Nato-Ukraine Council during the Nato summit in Vilnius on July 12. Photo: AFP

Under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Hungary has experienced democratic backsliding and the country is now widely regarded as a non-democracy. We have seen the same ideological transformation in Poland with the rise of the Law and Justice party. None of this bodes well for the future of European politics, particularly given the shift of several central and eastern European parties towards the far right.

The rightward shift in the political landscape in Europe reflects the changing basis of political support and action in an EU beset with challenges. Economic crises, Brexit, migrants fleeing war and environmental destruction, democratic backsliding in eastern Europe, and climate change are all directly challenging the governance of mainstream centre-left and centre-right parties alike.

The political and economic aftershocks of the Covid-19 pandemic represent the most recent and potentially most damaging crisis for European liberal democracies in the long term. The European Parliament elections in June 2024 are looming ever closer and these elections could see further political shocks and gains for the far right across the continent.

Dr James F. Downes is head of the Politics and Public Administration Programme at Hong Kong Metropolitan University. His latest research examines populism in Europe, EU-China economic relations and China’s Belt and Road Initiative project. His forthcoming book, written with Dr Valerio Alfonso Bruno and Dr Alessio Scopelliti, titled “The Rise of the Radical Right in Italy” will be published in 2024