Trump is likely to escalate hostilities against China and the EU, with higher tariffs and a possible US exit from Nato. To prepare, Beijing and Brussels must start tackling their geopolitical, security and trade differences.
Policy divisions among EU institutions as well as member states, and intensifying US-China rivalry, complicate the bloc’s China policy. The EU must get agreement on a unified China strategy among its member states, focusing on economics and trade, but avoid systemic decoupling and steer clear of politics.
The rightward shift in the political landscape in Europe reflects the changing basis of political support and action in an EU beset with challenges. This trend suggests next year’s European Parliament elections could lead to further political shocks and gains for the far right.