Clean energy transition needs to be three times faster than previous transitions to fossil fuels to limit global warming: BCG

Renewables and other low-carbon solutions’ share in the global energy supply must rise four to six fold by 2050 to reach the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

The clean transition needs to be around three times faster than previous energy transitions, for example when the world made the transition from traditional biomass to coal, and then to oil and natural gas.

The report said the proportion must rise to 50 to 70 per cent by 2050 from 12 per cent in 2021, and that these energy sources must match the maximum shares held by coal and oil roughly three times faster than those commodities did and ultimately account for most primary energy by 2050.

“Society has gone through energy transitions in the past – but nothing like this one,” said the report which was published on Wednesday. “The adoption of coal occurred over roughly five decades and the shift from coal to oil took more than three decades. To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre industrial levels, we must ramp up renewables and other low-carbon solutions at warp speed.”

By 2050, global electricity consumption is projected to double, while over 775 million people around the world will still have no access to electricity, and societies will need more than 20 megawatt hours (MWh) of primary energy per person to reach high levels of prosperity. To meet these competing demands, society must massively accelerate the substitution and abatement of fossil fuels, according to BCG.

To achieve those transitional targets, the world must rapidly increase energy efficiency, electrify end uses via applications such as electric vehicles or heat pumps, decarbonise power supplies, use low-carbon fuels in hard-to-abate use cases, and deploy carbon capture, according to BCG.