China’s aggressive expansion of coal power undermining global efforts to wean itself off dirty fuel: study
- New coal power capacity under development in China rose 38 per cent to 366GW last year, while it fell 20 per cent in rest of the world, according to a report by climate NGOs
- The world needs to step up the pace of retiring coal capacity 4.5 times faster than last year if the UN’s aim of phasing out coal by 2040 is to be met, according to Global Energy Monitor
Coal-powered capacity in operation in developed and developing countries fell in 2022 as existing plants were retired and proposed projects were cancelled, except in China where new projects are coming up as local governments heed Beijing’s call to ensure energy security.
Globally, 45.5GW of coal capacity was commissioned in 2022, with nearly 60 per cent coming from China, according to the report. And although 26GW of coal capacity was retired globally last year, the world’s coal-powered fleet grew by 19.5GW, an increase of less than 1 per cent compared with 2021.
“The more new coal projects come online, the steeper the cuts and commitments need to be in the future,” said Flora Champenois, lead author of the report and project manager for GEM’s global coal plant tracker. “At this rate, the transition away from existing and new coal isn’t happening fast enough to avoid climate chaos.”
In an “Acceleration Agenda” released along with the IPCC report, the UN urged that all existing coal plants must be retired by 2030 in the world’s richest countries, and by 2040 everywhere, and there is no room for any new coal plants.
To meet the UN’s requirement of phasing out coal power by 2040, the pace of retiring coal fleet needs to move four and half times faster than last year, which means retiring an average of 117GW per year, according to GEM.
OECD countries need to retire an average of 60GW of coal power each year to meet their 2030 phase-out deadline, and for non-OECD countries, 91GW each year for their 2040 deadline. For the 537GW of coal capacity under construction and consideration, the required pace of retirement would have to be even steeper, the report said.
China, the world’s largest coal producer and consumer, has embarked on a rapid expansion of its coal fleet since an initial wave of power outages closed factories and homes across half the country in 2021. A drought-induced power shortage in China’s hydro-rich regions such as Sichuan province last year further prompted officials in Beijing to order provincial authorities to ramp up coal production to ensure power security.
Although the country has committed to phase down coal use from 2026 to reach its 2060 carbon neutrality goal, coal is likely to remain at the core of China’s energy infrastructure to ensure stable power supply, former premier Li Keqiang signalled in a speech at the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress last month.
China curbing the use of coal is crucial to the global fight against climate change, analysts said.
“Outside China, the response to the energy crisis was dominated by investments in clean energy. However, that progress urgently needs to be accelerated,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, the lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
“China pulled in the opposite direction, sharply increasing planned coal power capacity, showing the need to deploy clean solutions and better enforcement of existing policies that should restrict new coal power projects,” he said.