Hong Kong stock market likely to head lower on first trading day of Year of the Monkey
First trading day of the Lunar New Year on Thursday more likely to see a ‘black debut’ than a lucky ‘red debut’, Hong Kong brokers say
The first trading day of the Year of Monkey on Thursday February 11 will have a higher chance of seeing a “black debut” instead of a lucky “red debut”, Hong Kong brokers say.
It would be a good omen to see a red debut – meaning the Hong Kong market would close higher on the first trading day of the Year of the Monkey than the last trading day of the Year of Goat (Friday February 5).
A black debut, which means the market would close lower on the opening day than the close last
Friday, would be a bad omen.
David Tung Wai, who at 87 is the oldest of his broker peers and has been trading in the stock market for over 70 years in Shanghai and Hong Kong, said he has witnessed more red debuts than black debuts in his career but he believes we are likely to see a black debut in the Year of Monkey.
“It is likely we are going to have a black debut in the Year of the Monkey as the oil price has kept falling, US stock markets have been falling, while there are many short sellers shorting both the Hong Kong dollar and stocks,” Tung said.
“Under the weak economic outlook and poor investment sentiment, it would be hard to see a red debut. However, I believe the market would have support for the Hang Seng Index to reach the level of 18,000.”
Jun Yang Securities Chief Executive Kenny Tang Sing-hing said he believes the Hong Kong stock market will fall when it opens on Thursday – but whether or not there will be a plunge will depend on the performance of US and European markets in the coming two days.