US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is greeted by Chinese President Xi Jinping before their meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 9. Photo: Reuters
Opinion
Andrew Leung
Andrew Leung
US needs to accept it’s a multipolar world and work with China
In a world where cooperation trumps zero-sum combat, America’s exceptionalism may shine. Grand possibilities and the world’s problems await US re-engagement with China
With US-China relations seemingly stuck in a deep freeze, President Xi Jinping hit the nail on the head at a recent last-minute meeting with US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and his bipartisan delegation. Xi stressed that the Thucydides Trap was “not inevitable”, that the “wide world can accommodate China and the US in their respective development and common prosperity”.
At the heart of it all is an American refusal to accept that the world has become multipolar. Rhetoric about US primacy lingers – apart from America and China, there appears to be no credible third centre of power validating the concept of a multipolar world. Yet, even with its military might, what the US wants can no longer always prevail – what is happening in Ukraine and the Middle East may be a case in point.
As Emma Ashford and Evan Cooper of the Stimson Centre, a Washington-based non-partisan think tank, argued in Foreign Policy last week: “A multipolar system doesn’t require three powers of equal size; it just requires that significant power is concentrated in more than two states. Today, the middle powers – from Japan to India – are significantly more influential than they once were.”
Apart from the middle powers, the Global South as a whole is coming to the fore. According to New York-based The Conference Board, by 2035, emerging economies will grow to make up 61 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product, on purchasing power parity terms. Along with economic growth, the bargaining power and influence of the Global South will continue to expand.
As for China, the flourishing of Huawei Technologies, despite a stifling technological stranglehold, suggests the United States may have underestimated Chinese technological capacity and resilience. The US-inspired global movement to decouple or “de-risk” from China looks increasingly futile and counterproductive.
China has a wealth of STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) doctorates and is set to outnumber those in the US by three to one by 2025, excluding foreign students. An Australian Strategic Policy Institute tracker in March found that China beat the US in 37 of 44 key cutting-edge technologies, with a substantial lead in all categories, including artificial intelligence, quantum communications and biotechnology.
China’s greatest trump card is its deep-seated global economic connectivity. While the US used to be the bigger trader for most countries of the world, China is now the bigger trading partner for 128 of 190 countries, according to a Lowy Institute report. And seven of the world’s top 10 busiest container ports are in China.
But even China, for all that, is not the only game in town. High-net-worth individuals are migrating from China and countries including India, the UK and Russia to top destinations like Australia, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates. Cosmopolitanism, a concept that harks back to 4th century Greece, calls for a sense of global citizenship beyond elitist zero-sum nationalism.
It embraces an overriding sense that, factional conflict and rivalry aside, we are living in the same global village in an era defined by borderless climate change, with Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies powering e-commerce and the Internet of Things.
This is at the heart of Xi’s vision of a community with a shared future for mankind, which aligns with the Chinese philosophical concept of harmony despite differences: he er butong.
02:27
Chinese President Xi Jinping meets top US senator, says China-US ties impact 'destiny of mankind'
Chinese President Xi Jinping meets top US senator, says China-US ties impact 'destiny of mankind'
In a world where cooperation and coexistence trump zero-sum mortal combat, America’s exceptionalism may truly shine. Witness its unrivalled scientific lead, technological breakthroughs, entrepreneurial excellence, financial depth, global military reach, network of friends and allies, and global cultural soft power.
Perhaps that’s why the above-mentioned Stimson Centre scholars say that multipolarity is not bad news for the US.
Some initial ideas come to mind on how the US could productively re-engage China in a multipolar world.
First, Washington should be seen to be sincere in upholding the one-China principle. Rather than fixate on turning Taiwan into a military porcupine, America could promote dialogue on cross-strait relations, people-to-people exchanges, and bilateral trade and investments, including US commercial interests. After all, Beijing has made plain in three successive white papers that peaceful unification is the priority.
03:50
Mainland China white paper declares ‘greatest sincerity’ for peaceful reunification with Taiwan
Mainland China white paper declares ‘greatest sincerity’ for peaceful reunification with Taiwan
Second, America should scale back its provocative freedom of navigation naval patrols. That it does not recognise Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea is a point that has been well made. What may be more productive is an acceleration of the development of a code of conduct in the South China Sea. Indonesia, as Asean chair, pushed for this acceleration initiative, which has since been agreed by both China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Third, working with Beijing, the US should organise more visits to various parts of China for US legislators and opinion leaders to go on exchange. Their Chinese counterparts should also be selected for an expanded US International Visitor Programme (of which I was a beneficiary in 1990 right after the Tiananmen Square crackdown). Deeper mutual understanding often works wonders in building bridges.
Fourth, the US should undertake projects with China to address the various challenges in the Global South, including climate change mitigation, renewable energy infrastructure, education and technical training, healthcare and pandemic prevention. American and Chinese knowledge and skills are often complimentary. Working together improves trust and cooperation.
These are just baby steps towards grander possibilities for US-China cooperation – including space exploration, leader-to-leader hotlines for conflict resolution, and the reform of the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and UN Security Council.
Andrew K.P. Leung is an independent China strategist.[email protected]
