Reasons why the Thailand cave rescue is going to be a difficult challenge
Getting them out of the Tham Luang Nang Non cave could be a long and difficult process
Getting to the boys was mission impossible. Getting them out is going to be even harder.The rescuers called it “mission impossible” but they defied the odds to find the 12 boys and their football coach deep in a cave complex. However the hard part may yet be ahead: getting them out safely.
There are a few ways the hungry and weak boys could get out, none of them easy options. Here's why:
The cave is huge
Tham Luang Nang Non cave in Chiang Rai province stretches under a mountainside for up to 10km, much of it a string of narrow passageways that lead to wide chambers and then back to narrow passageways. The rocky and muddy ground makes several changes in height along the way.
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The British Cave Rescue Council, which has members taking part in the operation, thinks the boys are around 2km into the cave and somewhere between 800 metres to 1km below the surface.
Other estimates put the boys as far as 4km into the cave.
The cave is flooded
Finding the boys took more than nine days, partly because of how difficult it is to move around the cave.
The cave floods during Thailand’s rainy season and even elite Thai Navy SEAL divers from the army were finding it difficult to move through the muddy waters, currents and tight passageways.
Safety first
Thai authorities say they are committed to “100 per cent safety” when they consider how to extract the boys, who don’t seem to need any urgent medical care.
Chiang Rai provincial Governor Narongsak Osatanakorn said, “We worked so hard to find them and we will not lose them.”
According to Anmar Mirza, national coordinator of the National Cave Rescue Commission in the US and editor of the book Manual of US Cave Rescue Technique, the main decision is now whether to try to evacuate the boys or to supply them in place.
A timeline of the Thailand cave rescue
Could they dive out?
In theory yes: but it is an extremely difficult task and could be the most dangerous option. Cave diving is already very risky, especially for young boys in a weakened state who have no diving experience.
The cave is one of the hardest to navigate with its winding and at times narrow corridors.
If they dive, they have no choice but to follow the steps that rescuers took though tiny passageways clogged with mud and.
That journey takes a healthy - and skilled - Navy SEAL diver about six hours.
But things would be easier now that a route has been established. There will be lines and glow sticks to guide them, and also spare oxygen along the way.
Officials said they will try to train the boys to use important diving gear after they have had some food, water and medical support.
“Cave diving is a very technical skill and it’s extremely dangerous, especially for an untrained diver,” Anmar Mirza, coordinator of the US National Cave Rescue Commission, said.
“So they may end up being better off trying to supply them in [the] cave until they can be gotten out by other means.”
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Supplying them in place?
This is possibly the safest option.
It would involve bringing food and other supplies to the boys and waiting for water levels to drop, naturally or by pumping out water, or until rescuers can find or create another exit.
This could take anywhere from days to weeks to even months as the rainy season typically lasts until October.
The Thai Navy is already doing this short-term, sending teams with high-protein liquid food to feed the boys, keep them company, and explore the cave infrastructure to ensure it is safe.
The navy said medics will be sent to help and improve conditions in the cave.
But . . .
More monsoon rains are on the way.
After a break in the weather in recent days, the Thai Meteorological Department forecast for Chiang Rai predicts light rain until Friday followed by heavy rain starting Saturday and continuing until July 10.
Such storms could raise water levels in the cave again and complicate the supply missions or any potential evacuation, if one was needed.
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Could they be dug out?
Explorers have spent days scouring the mountain top for possible alternative openings. They have found a few “promising” leads and have tried to drill deeper.
But there is no indication that any of those openings connect to the chamber where the boys have been stranded.
Backhoes and drilling equipment were sent to the mountain, but creating a passage large enough to extract the boys would be extremely complicated and could take a long time.
The British Cave Rescue Council said the boys are “located in a relatively small space and this would make any potential drilling attempt as a means of rescue very difficult.”
Even if they can be reached this way, the boys need to spend time getting stronger in the depths of the cave before they can attempt to climb up a second entry - if one is found - or be lifted out.
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What about walking out?
This would be the safest option, but at the moment it is impossible because parts of the route remain flooded.
So in theory they could wait, but that means hoping that flood waters go away.
Water pumps are working around the clock to drain the floods though it has been an uphill battle for much of the week as heavy rains refused to stop.
If the current break in bad weather continues, this option could be more promising.
But weather forecasters warn downpours may soon return as monsoon season sets in.
“If the rain fills up the cave system then that might take months before the water drops again,” Belgian diver Ben Reymenants, owner of Blue Label Diving in Thailand who is assisting the search, told AFP.
How long could it take?
Hard to say for sure. It depends how long it takes for them to regain strength.
Experts say they could remain inside for weeks, or even months, as rescuers work out the safest option for their extraction.
The military said Tuesday it was preparing enough food for four months but did not speculate they could be in there that long.
Are the boys even in the right mindset to move?
They clearly want to leave. In footage that emerged after the boys were found by two British divers late on Monday one asks to “go outside.”
One of the diver replies “I know, I understand... no, not today.”
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Even if they are physically fit enough to dive, they will need the mental strength to stay calm in the muddy waters and claustrophobic passageways that stand between them and freedom.
Fortunately, they seem in pretty good shape, considering.
“They’re mentally stable which is actually pretty good,” Reymenants said.
“Luckily the coach had the sanity of mind to keep them all together, huddled together to conserve their energy, that basically saved them.”
Edited by Jamie Lam