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The Philippines
This Week in AsiaPolitics

South China Sea: 10 years after Hague ruling, how has the Philippines’ stance evolved?

Officials and analysts say Manila’s deterrence strategies can now make China ‘at least hesitate’, even though there is still much to be done

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Ships identified by the Philippine Coast Guard as Chinese research vessels are seen at Scarborough Shoal in the disputed South China Sea on June 15. Photo: AFP
Ships identified by the Philippine Coast Guard as Chinese research vessels (left and right) and Chinese maritime militia (lower) at Scarborough Shoal in the disputed South China Sea on June 15. Photo: AFP
Raissa Robles
A decade after a tribunal in The Hague ruled on July 12, 2016, that Beijing’s sweeping South China Sea claims had no legal basis, Philippine officials and analysts say Manila remains heavily outmatched at sea but has begun turning its landmark legal victory into a more credible form of deterrence.
The Philippines brought the case in 2013 under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos), challenging Beijing’s nine-dash line and other claims.

The tribunal ruled that China’s nine-dash line had no legal basis and that it had violated Manila’s sovereign rights in its exclusive economic zone, though it did not decide which country owned the disputed reefs and features.

China rejected the proceedings and the ruling, saying the tribunal had no jurisdiction and insisting it had sovereignty over the disputed features and adjacent waters.

Beijing argues the tribunal had no jurisdiction because the case touched on sovereignty and maritime delimitation, matters it says are outside compulsory dispute settlement under Unclos. In a 2014 position paper, China said the tribunal “manifestly has no jurisdiction” and that the Philippines had violated agreements to settle disputes through negotiation.

People pass by an electronic board showing areas of the disputed South China Sea during a conference in Manila on Friday to mark the 10th anniversary of a 2016 arbitration ruling which invalidated China’s expansive claims. Photo: AP
People pass by an electronic board showing areas of the disputed South China Sea during a conference in Manila on Friday to mark the 10th anniversary of a 2016 arbitration ruling which invalidated China’s expansive claims. Photo: AP

The Philippines and its supporters reject that argument, saying the award is final and binding under Unclos. But Beijing has since remained locked in a diplomatic row with Manila in the contested waterway, with tensions escalating into vessel clashes.

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