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Is China planning to declare shared control of Diaoyu Islands with Japan?

Security expert warns Beijing may unilaterally claim islets to be jointly administered and dispatch maritime militia there to boost presence

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A Chinese coastguard vessel sails near a Japanese coastguard vessel off Uotsuri Island, one of a group of disputed islands called the Senkakus in Japan, also known in China as the Diaoyus, in the East China Sea in April 2024. Photo: Kyodo via Reuters
China is preparing to take the next step in its campaign to challenge Japanese control of the disputed Diaoyu Islands by unilaterally declaring them to be jointly administered, a prominent maritime security expert has warned.

Dr Toshi Yoshihara, a leading authority on China’s naval strategy and a former professor at the US Naval War College, told the right-leaning Sankei Shimbun newspaper that Beijing could also dispatch members of its maritime militia disguised as fishermen to land on the uninhabited islets to further its claims, complicating any coordinated response by Tokyo and Washington.

Yoshihara said China had maintained a near-constant coastguard presence in waters surrounding the Diaoyus – known in Japan as the Senkakus – including regular incursions into what Tokyo considered its territorial waters. By maintaining this presence, Beijing could argue that Japan was failing to exercise administrative authority, thereby justifying a claim of shared control.

“[If] China can demonstrate that it can be in those waters on a more or less permanent basis and Japan can’t do anything about it, how can Japan actually in practise claim that it has administrative control of the waters?” he said in the interview, which was published on Tuesday.

The disputed Diaoyu Islands, also known as Senkaku in Japan, in the East China Sea. Photo: Reuters/Kyodo
The disputed Diaoyu Islands, also known as Senkaku in Japan, in the East China Sea. Photo: Reuters/Kyodo

This approach was the natural progression from Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to the China coastguard’s Shanghai headquarters for the East China Sea in November 2023, during which he ordered measures to “strengthen sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands”, Yoshihara said.

Julian Ryall never expected to still be in Japan 24 years after he first arrived, but he quickly realised its advantages over his native London. He lives in Yokohama with his wife and children and writes for publications around the world.
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