What Duterte’s downfall means for Sara, Marcos – and the Philippines

Ex-president Duterte is behind bars in The Hague and his daughter is fighting for political survival. But don’t discount a comeback in 2028

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Rodrigo Duterte pictured at an Asean summit in 2019 while still president of the Philippines. Photo: Reuters

Published: 8:00am, 29 Mar 2025Updated: 1:55pm, 1 Apr 2025

Rodrigo Duterte once ruled the Philippines with an iron fist, his war on drugs leaving thousands dead and his popularity seemingly unshakeable. Today, the former president finds himself in a detention cell in The Hague, awaiting trial for crimes against humanity.

For President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, Duterte’s downfall is both a triumph and a gamble. By facilitating his predecessor’s detainment by the International Criminal Court (ICC) earlier this month, analysts say Marcos Jnr has dealt a staggering blow to the Duterte clan.

But the move has also heaped fuel on the fire of a feud between two of the country’s most powerful political dynasties, both long-tainted by allegations of corruption and human-rights abuses.

Many had doubted Marcos’ resolve to take out his rivals – saying he lacked the political will and was too afraid of confrontation, according to Earl Parreño, author of Beyond Will and Power, a 2019 biography of Duterte. “But it turned out he could do it, and he’s managed the reactions so far.”

Duterte’s arrest on March 11 set the scene for a cascade of political pressure on his family and allies. His assets in the Philippines are set to be frozen by the ICC, and further warrants are expected to target loyalists, including Senator Ronald dela Rosa and Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio, the former president’s daughter.

Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio addresses a gathering outside the International Criminal Court in The Hague on March 14. Photo: AFP

Duterte-Carpio, who is facing impeachment charges herself at home, has accused the Marcos administration of orchestrating her father’s arrest for political gain.