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Jeoffrey Maitem

As diehard supporters of arrested Philippine ex-president Rodrigo Duterte staged protests across the country’s south, legal experts expressed scepticism on Wednesday about his chances of success at The Hague.
The 79-year-old was detained on Tuesday under an International Criminal Court warrant that cited his brutal crackdown on drugs while in office.
In Davao City, a long-time Duterte stronghold, protesters rallied outside the city hall hours after police took the former president into custody at Manila airport following his arrival from Hong Kong.
He was later flown to The Hague in the Netherlands to face charges of crimes against humanity.
Duterte’s supporters also took to social media, urging others to “keep up the fight”, as anger over his arrest intensified across the country.
“His arrest has no basis. I am angry about what is happening. Let’s unite and show our support,” said former politician Jimmy Dureza.
Lovely Villoria, a 42-year-old Davao resident, credited Duterte’s tough-on-crime policies for the security her family enjoyed in the city, where he served as mayor for 22 years before becoming president from 2016-2022.
But for Clarita Alia, whose four sons were allegedly killed in the deadly anti-drugs campaign, Duterte’s arrest came as a welcome relief
“I thanked God. My prayers were answered and the moment I was waiting for happened,” the 70-year-old told This Week in Asia.


President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr has faced criticism over executing the ICC warrant. Duterte’s son, the current mayor of Davao city, accused Marcos of using the arrest to deflect scrutiny from the 2025 national budget.
“The Bongbong Marcos administration is fantasising that this scenario would materialise, hoping that the issue on the national budget would just go away. The smell of desperation,” Davao Mayor Sebastian Duterte wrote on social media.
Marcos defended his government’s decision to cooperate with the ICC warrant.
“Interpol asked for help and we obliged because we have commitments to the Interpol which we have to fulfil. If we don’t do that, they will no longer help us with other cases involving Filipino fugitives abroad,” he told a press briefing on Tuesday.
Former chief presidential legal counsel Salvador Panelo has suggested that Duterte’s camp could approach the Supreme Court to seek an explanation from police. However, observers dismissed such a move as futile.
“Let’s keep in mind that the one who issued the arrest warrant was the International Criminal Court and before we left as signatory to the ICC, there was already a case filed against him. We are obliged to follow,” said Aldrin Alba, a legal expert at the Political Economic Elemental Researchers and Strategists think tank.
“The Supreme Court jurisdiction is within the territorial limit of the country only. Once he is out of the country, they have no more jurisdiction.”
Alba said the only option was to “counter the ICC” after Duterte’s lawyers had urged the Philippines’ top court to issue a temporary restraining order against his arrest.

Meanwhile, Vice-President Sara Duterte vowed to follow her father wherever he was taken and expressed confidence that the legal battle would strengthen her chances of winning the presidency if she decided to run in 2028.
“There are arrangements because I need to speak with the lawyers there about where he will be taken. We will go, and the lawyers will go, and we will discuss what needs to be done,” she said.
Sara Duterte, who faces an impeachment trial in the Senate, denounced the Marcos administration’s actions as “oppression and persecution”.
“This act shows the world that this government is willing to abandon its own citizens and betray the very essence of our sovereignty and national dignity,” she said.

‘Political telenovela’
Political analyst Edmund Tayao, a professor at the San Beda Graduate School of Law in Manila, said that Duterte’s political style relied heavily on appealing to public emotion.
“Either this will spell the end of the protracted political telenovela or we’ve just come to a crescendo. We saw what their supporters are doing, they are calling for mass protest,” he said.
Tayao added that Duterte’s allies were using the arrest for political gain, but even if his daughter becomes president, she cannot pardon him, as the case falls under international jurisdiction.
Duterte faces two complaints at the ICC: one case was filed by a former police officer who accused him of ordering the killings in Davao City, and the other was lodged by the families of the victims of his drug war that left more than 8,000 suspects dead.


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Former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte speaks to Filipino workers at an event in Hong Kong on Sunday. Photo: Sam Tsang

A doctor examines Rodrigo Duterte at Villamor Air Base in Manila. Photo: Instagram/veronicaduterte

People hold signs against former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte following his arrest in Quezon City in the Philippines, on Tuesday. Photo: AP

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Former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte (centre) is seen in custody at Villamor Air Base in Manila on Tuesday in this photo released by his political party. Photo: Partido Demokratiko Pilipino/Getty Images/TNS

An exterior view of The Hague Penitentiary Institution in The Netherlands, which houses ICC detention cells. Photo: EPA-EFE

Former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte (centre) is seen in custody at Villamor Air Base in Manila on Tuesday. Photo: Partido Demokratiko Pilipino/Getty Images/TNS

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This Week in Asia

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Southeast Asia

Experts say the ex-president’s chances of avoiding ICC prosecution are slim as supporters take to the streets to protest his arrest


Experts say the ex-president’s chances of avoiding ICC prosecution are slim as supporters take to the streets to protest his arrest.


Rodrigo Duterte

International Criminal Court

Human rights

Ferdinand Marcos Jnr