Pakistan watches China-India border thaw with mixed feelings over Kashmir

Pakistan is watching with a mix of relief and concern as its close ally China and arch-rival India seek to de-escalate a four-year stand-off along their disputed Himalayan border. While Islamabad has remained officially silent on the recent military repositioning, analysts say the easing of tensions at the point in Kashmir where their three frontiers meet is welcomed news. “Any development that contributes to the stability and security of the region will be welcome in Pakistan,” said Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador to Britain, the United States, and the United Nations. De-escalation of Sino-Indian tensions is “good news for South Asia at a time when the situation is so fraught elsewhere in the world”, she said. India’s Ministry of External Affairs announced an agreement with China on October 21 for “disengagement and resolution of issues” in border areas, following violent clashes that resulted in the deaths of 24 soldiers in June 2020. The Chinese foreign ministry subsequently confirmed that both sides had “reached a solution” after “close communication” through diplomatic and military channels. However, analysts say Pakistan remains frustrated by India’s refusal to engage over their own border dispute in Kashmir. Despite a ceasefire agreement in February 2021 aimed at reducing skirmishes along the contested border, diplomatic relations between the South Asian neighbours have remained largely frozen since 2019. In a rare visit, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar attended a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation conference in Islamabad last month, marking the first ministerial visit since 2015. He did not engage in formal bilateral dialogue, but during an informal discussion, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar reportedly urged Jaishankar to allow India’s cricket team to play in a major tournament Pakistan is hosting early next year. India’s Ministry of External Affairs later denied that such a request had been made, stating that “nothing of the sort” happened. Islamabad understands that “shared concerns about India are one of the driving forces” of the China-Pakistan partnership, said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre, a Washington think tank. He cautioned that any signs of a rapprochement between India and China could be “problematic” for Islamabad. Yet with its own domestic crises, Pakistan has “enough to worry about at home” and may find some solace in the reduced likelihood of a renewed border clash between its two powerful neighbours, “at least for now”, Kugelman said. Farwa Aamer, director of South Asia Initiatives at the New York-based Asia Society Policy Institute, said Pakistan would closely monitor developments between China and India, while prioritising its own internal security issues that “must be addressed urgently”. This year, two suicide attacks by militants on Chinese nationals and Belt and Road Initiative projects have resulted in the deaths of seven Chinese citizens, prompting Beijing last month to advise its citizens against travel to Pakistan’s western provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In a public reprimand, China’s ambassador to Pakistan, Jiang Zaidong, expressed frustration over the attacks, saying “it is unacceptable for us to be attacked twice in only six months”. He urged Pakistan to take action against “all anti-China terrorist groups”, emphasising that “security is the biggest concern” for Beijing and crucial for the success of the US$65 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. “Without a safe and sound environment, nothing can be achieved,” the Chinese envoy warned. Despite these challenges, analysts are confident China will maintain a close relationship with Pakistan given their economic and strategic alignment. Pakistan Foreign Office spokeswoman Mumtaz Baloch responded to the Chinese ambassador’s comments on Thursday, describing his remarks as “perplexing” and reaffirming Pakistan’s commitment to the safety of its “Chinese brothers” within the South Asian nation. Analysts say Pakistan lacks the political and economic clout necessary to compel India to engage in meaningful dialogue. India sees “more advantages with knock-on effects from rapprochement with China than it does with Pakistan”, Kugelman said. While better relations with Beijing could enhance investment opportunities, India sees little advantage in expanding commercial ties with Islamabad and “isn’t looking for these outcomes”, he added. Yogesh Gupta, a former Indian ambassador, said the “main problem” in the bilateral relationship was that Pakistan “resorts to terrorism to achieve its political objectives and the issue of Kashmir”. India has “paid a huge price to control terrorism” in Jammu and Kashmir and elsewhere, Gupta said, and “can’t condone this problem”. “If Pakistan moves ahead on these issues, then a dialogue with India can take place,” he added. However, Pakistan has refused to accept any unilateral change to the status of Kashmir, over which it has fought two major wars with India. In 2020, New Delhi revoked the special status of the parts of Kashmir that it administers, ending the region’s own laws and autonomy and sparking widespread protests. Lodhi, the former Pakistani ambassador, said that the government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had shown “no interest” in resuming talks with Islamabad, “apparently concluding that the absence of dialogue hurts Pakistan and not India”. Consequently, the recent easing of tensions between China and India is “unlikely to have a knock-on effect on Pakistan-India relations”, she said. Aamer noted that the diplomatic dynamics between India and China differ significantly from those with Pakistan. While both China and India have engaged in substantial border negotiations and share economic interests as major players in the Global South, similar motivations for dialogue with Pakistan have yet to emerge. As both India and China continue work to address their border differences, former Indian ambassador Gupta emphasised that withdrawing troops from “eyeball confrontation” and resuming patrols would be essential for maintaining stability. “This will help in the maintenance of peace, security, and good neighbourly relations,” he said, although he acknowledged that it would “require a lot of patient handling on both sides” Aamer said that such confidence-building measures from China and India help to signal that the situation in the region “isn’t acutely tense”, ultimately benefiting South Asia as a whole – “something that should be in the interest of all parties”, she said.

Pakistan watches China-India border thaw with mixed feelings over Kashmir

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Islamabad is frustrated that New Delhi isn’t keen to resume diplomatic talks over their disputed Kashmir border, analysts say

Islamabad is frustrated that New Delhi isn’t keen to resume diplomatic talks over their disputed Kashmir border, analysts say