Why South Korea fears a Trump second term – even with his proxy’s assurances
- Ex-Trump security chief Fred Fleitz insists Seoul has nothing to fear. President Yoon says he isn’t worried. But analysts beg to differ
Fred Fleitz, a former top Trump security official, arrived in Seoul this week in an apparent bid to assuage Korean fears, denying in local media interviews that Trump had threatened to withdraw US troops unless Seoul paid billions of dollars more.
“I believe that President Trump is a friend of South Korea. Trump is a deal-maker. But … this is an issue that has to be negotiated,” Fleitz said during an interview with Channel-A TV in Seoul on Tuesday.
“I believe very strongly that Trump probably will try to resume personal diplomacy with Kim,” Fleitz said during the television interview. “He frequently says in his campaign speeches that his diplomacy with leader Kim was one of the big successes of his foreign policy.”
In a separate press conference on Tuesday, Fleitz told journalists that a reelected Trump would press Kim to follow through on his 2018 pledge to denuclearise, and would demand that North Korea “stop sending weapons” to Russia as a precondition for any renewed dialogue.
A deal with Kim means the US acknowledges the North as a nuclear-armed state … Could Washington stomach this?
However, Moon Seong-mook of the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy warned that a second Trump administration would find reviving talks challenging.
“A deal with Kim means the US acknowledges the North as a nuclear-armed state and seeks mutual disarmament,” he told This Week in Asia. “Could Washington stomach this?”
“They may say whatever they want to say, as they are not in office now, but they would find it a different matter if they try to translate those words into policies.”
Sohn Yul, a political-science professor at Seoul National University, expressed concern that Trump’s policy of retrenchment from international affairs and towards domestic priorities could undermine Washington’s commitment to its allies’ defence.
He cautioned that a second Trump term would present “hugely bloated bills” to Seoul for US troops and joint military exercises, putting President Yoon – already struggling with low approval ratings – “on the horns of a dilemma”.
“The Yoon government would face two difficult choices – accept the bills and risk losing power, or reject the bills and risk the withdrawal of at least part of the US troops from South Korea,” Sohn warned.
In the first half of this year, South Korea reported a US$27.4 billion trade surplus with the US, a 50 per cent increase from the same period the previous year. During this time, South Korea’s trade deficit with China fell by 59 per cent to US$5.43 billion.
Yang Moo-jin, a political-science professor and dean of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, anticipated that another Trump presidency would present both challenges and opportunities for South Korea.
Fleitz said during the Channel-A TV that Trump would view China as the “number one threat”, in contrast to other issues that are “clearly not at the top of the list of national security threats”.
Yang said that harmonious US-China relations are needed to reduce tensions on the Korean peninsula.
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Additionally, Yoon’s “ideology-centred” approach to diplomacy fostering closer ties with the US, Japan, and Nato could clash with Trump’s “America First” foreign policy, Yang said.
“The Yoon government would find it hard to reconcile its ideology-based diplomacy with Trump’s America-first foreign policy focused on increasing US national interest,” Yang told This Week in Asia.
