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Did China security concerns help Japan’s ruling LDP score surprise win in Okinawa election?

  • Security concerns about China and Taiwan appeared to outweigh the issue of expanding US military bases in Okinawa

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Military aircraft in flight after taking off from the US air base in Futenma. Photo: AFP
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party scored a surprising victory over the Okinawa governor’s coalition in his prefecture’s recent elections, despite broad support for his opposition to expanding US military bases, an upset analysts suggest could be linked to growing security concerns over China.

Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki had campaigned on a platform of halting the enlargement of a US base in the far northeast of the prefecture to take over the functions of Futenma Air Base in central Okinawa and to reduce the overall US military presence from the nearly 30,000 service personnel at present.

Several thousand of those US troops, along with their dependents, are due to be relocated to Guam before the end of this year, but Tamaki and many Okinawans feel that their islands shoulder a disproportionate burden and that the number of US troops and bases should be more equitably shared throughout the rest of Japan.

“The [election] result was quite puzzling, as the LDP has done terribly in elections in Okinawa in recent years because of the issue of US military bases in the prefecture,” said Ben Ascione, an assistant professor of international relations at Tokyo’s Waseda University.

US Marine Corps’ Futenma air base in Ginowan, Okinawa prefecture. Photo: AFP
US Marine Corps’ Futenma air base in Ginowan, Okinawa prefecture. Photo: AFP

A public opinion survey conducted last year found that some 70 per cent of Okinawans believe the number of US military bases in the prefecture is “unfair”.

Julian Ryall never expected to still be in Japan 24 years after he first arrived, but he quickly realised its advantages over his native London. He lives in Yokohama with his wife and children and writes for publications around the world.
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