Can Philippines’ Marcos Jnr recover from lower approval ratings by leaning closer to the US?
- Marcos Jnr’s meeting with President Joe Biden and PM Fumio Kishida in the US could be a springboard for him to boost his approval ratings
- His ratings fell the most in Mindanao, where the Philippines is eyeing a second base to forge closer military cooperation with the US and Japan
The president’s approval and trust ratings plunged by 13 percentage points and 16 percentage points to 55 per cent and 57 per cent, respectively, in the first quarter of 2024, according to a non-commissioned quarterly survey by Pulse Asia. The results were a reversal from the fourth quarter of last year when his ratings rose marginally.
The survey released on Wednesday by the private pollster, which had previously predicted Marcos Jnr’s 2022 landslide election win, was conducted with 1,200 respondents nationwide from March 10 to March 16 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 per cent.
“I think the cha-cha [charter change] bid and the travels affected his ratings,” Franco said.
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The biggest rating declines came from the southern island of Mindanao, Metro Manila, and respondents in the poverty-stricken subgroup, according to the survey.
The results were not a surprise given the growing fissure between Marcos Jnr and the Duterte family, whose members remain highly popular in Mindanao, Franco said. “[Marcos] broke his promise” to help the poor in their financial difficulties, she added.
Prices of vegetables and other basic goods have recently stabilised, with some produce becoming cheaper due to the harvest season.
However, the price of rice remains high and Marcos Jnr has yet to make good on his election promise to bring it down to 20 pesos (US$0.35) per kilo. The Philippine Statistics Authority said well-milled rice retailed nationwide at 56.95 pesos per kilo on average last month.
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The survey also showed a decline in Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio’s nationwide approval and trust ratings but not as much as for Marcos Jnr. Her approval and trust ratings dropped by seven percentage points each in the first quarter.
While Marcos Jnr’s trust rating in Mindanao plunged to 38 per cent in the first quarter from 70 per cent in the fourth quarter, Duterte-Carpio’s rating fell to 95 per cent from 96 per cent over the same period. Marcos Jnr’s approval rating in Mindanao also nosedived to 40 per cent from 62 per cent.
Mindanao is one of the areas where the Philippine military is eyeing to build additional facilities for joint use with its American and possibly Japanese counterparts.
Ronald Llamas, a political analyst and chairman of the Galahad Consulting Agency, told This Week in Asia that Mindanao was where Marcos Jnr suffered his biggest rating drops.
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His ratings dropped because of cost of living issues such as inflation and his broken election promises, said Llamas, who was a presidential adviser on political affairs to the late President Benigno Aquino III. “It’s about the economy. It has less to do with politics and geopolitics.”
“He can use the Filipinos’ overwhelming support for our claims in the West Philippine Sea and their overwhelming anger toward China. In that way, he can stall his [ratings] drop” particularly as the territorial row is set to become an election issue, according to Llamas.
Duterte’s anger towards the American presence in Mindanao is unlikely to affect Marcos Jnr as the residents of the island were “more pro-American than pro-China”, Llamas said.
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Llamas noted that Marcos Jnr was losing the online battle to Duterte supporters and that he had not received public backing from any of his cabinet members to stem the slide in his ratings.
The president should therefore strive to change the online narratives about his policies and partly transfer blame to some of his cabinet members through a reshuffle, Llamas said.
“At the moment, the geopolitical concerns and the political and economic concerns of Filipinos are separate. His geopolitical moves are his strong point and most Filipinos support his foreign policy because they don’t like China and they identify the Dutertes as pro-China.”
