‘Likely to agitate China’: European powers step up their Indo-Pacific presence – to a mixed Southeast Asian reaction

Concerns about China, trade routes and upholding international law have seen Germany and Italy join France in making their regional presence felt

But analysts say European involvement won’t make the region safer, with Malaysia ‘cautious’ and Indonesia ‘critical’ – even if Manila welcomes it

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France’s armed-forces minister Sebastien Lecornu (left) shakes hands with Philippine defence secretary Gilbert Teodoro after signing documents in Manila last month. Photo: AFP

Published: 12:00pm, 7 Jan 2024

As China flexes its muscles in the region, European powers have increasingly made their presence felt through defence arrangements and naval port calls, prompting questions on whether their presence is helpful or a hindrance to safety in contested waters.

But experts do agree that common interests in ensuring access to secure maritime routes mean that European powers will continue to extend their outreach into what is now known by many as the Indo-Pacific.

In 2021, a German warship sailed into the South China Sea for the first time in almost two decades. Since then, there have been a series of other smaller engagements by other European powers, often at the invitation of Western countries invested in the region.

Germany’s frigate Bayern was dispatched to the South China Sea in 2021, the first for a German warship in almost two decades. Photo: dpa

John Hemmings, senior director of the Indo-Pacific foreign and security policy programme at the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum, said European powers were coming to the region because “Chinese behaviour is concerning for them” and because regional players including the US, Japan, and Australia were asking for their involvement.

China’s island-building efforts since 2014 in the South China Sea – which Beijing claims almost in its entirety – “marked the beginning of the end of European trust in China”, Hemmings said, referring to the waterway which carries one-third of all global shipping.

“It was unilateral, done without consultations, and directly threatened European supply lines to the industrial economies of Northeast Asia”, he said, adding that “without exception”, European navies had responded by strongly supporting national Indo-Pacific strategies aimed at countering China’s growing influence.

But the increased presence of European powers will not make the region safer, Hemmings said, as these countries were currently only able to offer “low-level commitments to the region – a naval group, an alignment, or a growing military footprint”.