Can Marcos Jnr’s ‘delicate balancing act’ keep Philippines out of line of fire if US-China tensions rise?

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s enthusiastic reception of both his Chinese and American counterparts on the sidelines of the Apec conference last week appeared to be a masterful display of foreign diplomacy, but analysts say being “a friend to all, enemy to none” could come under “heavy strain” should Sino-US tensions escalate.

Marcos Jnr performed a “delicate balancing act” in his meetings with Xi Jinping and Joe Biden that would please both world powers and yet keep them on their toes as to his true intentions, analysts told This Week in Asia.

The first test of that strategy could come in January when Marcos Jnr embarks on his first state visit to Beijing, after Washington made him an offer of increased US military presence in the Philippines, which is likely to displease China.

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation in Manila, explained that China viewed “with contempt” America’s “First Island Chain strategy” which includes deploying US forces with treaty allies. The concept was first conceived in the 1950s to deny China and the Soviet Union military access to the Western Pacific by fortifying a chain of islands that stretches from Ryukyu in Japan to Taiwan and in addition, the Philippines’ northern tip where the United States currently has no military presence.