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Is China behind mystery Kashmir ceasefire between India and Pakistan?
- New Delhi and Islamabad’s sudden agreement to halt skirmishes along the Line of Control comes soon after India-China deal to end Ladakh stand-off
- Ceasefire also coincides with establishment of China-India hotline and analysts believe US administration of Joe Biden may have been in the loop
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Practically two years to the day after Indian and Pakistan warplanes clashed in the skies over Kashmir, a ceasefire suddenly reinstated on Thursday is holding along the Line of Control (LoC) which divides the hotly disputed state.
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In the absence of any explanation from either Islamabad or New Delhi, mystery surrounds the circumstances in which the South Asian foes agreed to call a halt to the thousands of skirmishes that have taken place along the LoC since their air forces clashed in February 2019.
Coming so soon after the February 11 agreement between India and China to end their military stand-off in the Ladakh region, the timing of the ceasefire reinstatement with Pakistan suggests the moves may have been choreographed with China, analysts said.
The reinstatement of the LoC ceasefire came on the same day China and India agreed to establish a hotline between their foreign ministers so as to ensure “timely communication and exchange of views”, according to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The analysts also believe the newly installed administration of US President Joe Biden was in the loop, if not actively involved, because it wants Pakistan fully invested in persuading its Taliban allies to agree to a political settlement for Afghanistan – as did his predecessor Donald Trump.
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“The surprise would be if the four capitals did not discuss all these elements – especially since this conversation, as we know from Trump’s super-public statements, has been ongoing for a while, in one way or the other,” said Indian security analyst Praveen Swami.
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