Laos leaders fear ‘domino effect’ of Thailand’s pro-democracy movement amid election
- Some 224 candidates are contesting in the general election that has been called by observers as a ‘sham’ given Laos is a one-party state
- The polls come as Laotian leaders are increasingly wary about the spillover effects of the protests in neighbouring Thailand and Myanmar on its young people
According to Laos’ National Election Committee, among the 224 candidates listed for the general election, 164 will be selected as national assembly members by 4.3 million voters across the country.
According to the Vientiane Times, more than 7,200 polling stations are being set up across Laos and voting cards and ballot boxes have been produced and prepared for the election which is held once in five years.
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Young and middle-aged candidates will feature prominently during the election, “as the government encourages the younger generation to take more roles in state posts”, the Laotian Times reported, adding that only 43 members of the current legislature would be standing for re-election.
Almost half of the candidates are aged 46 to 55, another 33 are under the age of 46, 76 are aged 56 to 60, and 12 are older than 60, the newspaper said.
Local media reports said campaigning had “intensified”, though these appeared to consist largely of candidates meeting voters to explain the importance of the election while encouraging them to vote and pledging that they would serve voters’ interests.
‘SHAM’ ELECTION?
Keith Barney, a senior lecturer with the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University, said candidates were closely vetted and winners approved by the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party (LPRP).
During the 2016 elections, the International Federation of Human Rights described the polls as “a sham” because the LPRP is the only political party permitted in the country.
The LPRP, which has ruled the country since 1975, obtained 144 of 149 total seats in 2016, with the remaining going to independent candidates.
The government that will be ‘elected’ by the National Assembly has already been determined by the party. So the entire process is a sham
Agreeing, Martin Stuart-Fox, emeritus history professor from the University of Queensland, said elections were “predetermined” and choreographed by the LPRP “from start to finish”.
“The overwhelming majority of candidates are party members, there are no other parties, and the few independents are vetted by the party. The government that will be ‘elected’ by the National Assembly has already been determined by the party,” he said. “So the entire process is a sham.”
Soulatha Sayalath, an independent researcher based in Japan, said the elections were held to give the impression that the LPRP was more “responsive to democracy than the Party wants to be governed by it”.
“The significance of the elections is that they allow the Party to educate the people that the country is heading towards people’s democratic regime,” he said.
He added that the 11th Party Congress held last month was politically more important as it elected elite cadres to Party Central Committee, which in turn elects Politburo members “who have real power to decide which direction the country is heading”.
“In other words, the February elections are tools for building a sense among the people that the Party is responsive to visual democracy,” Sayalath added.
ANNOUNCEMENT OF PRESIDENT AND PRIME MINISTER
However, Barney said there was a regular degree of turnover of parliamentarians, some of whom responded to social, economic and environmental issues.
“So a limited amount of competition among party-approved candidates is permitted,” Barney said, adding that the main item to watch would be the announcement of the government, particularly the president and prime minister.
Since 2001, the party’s secretary general usually becomes president so Thongloun Sisoulith looks set to follow this path, Barney said.
Current vice-president and No 2 in the party, Phankham Viphavanh, is widely tipped to become the next prime minister, although deputy prime minister Sonexay Siphandone could be another possibility, Barney said.
“But it is possible that Laos could split the role of secretary general and president,” said Barney, pointing to the example of how it had done so in the 1990s.
In post-war Lao history, the party’s secretary general has also served as either the state president or the prime minister. “So there is a degree of flexibility on these issues, depending on the circumstances,” Barney said.
Due to Covid-19 restrictions, electoral events are expected to be scaled down as compared to past elections, while authorities are likely to step up security at polling stations, counting centres, and election committee offices, said private security services company GardaWorld last week.
It also added that “while unlikely”, activists opposing the central government could stage rallies near these venues, while clashes between security forces and protesters, or between rival supporters, were possible.
“Mass arrests may occur if officials consider any gathering participant to violate Covid-19 rules,” GardaWorld said.
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SPILLOVER EFFECT FROM THAILAND
Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a professor of Southeast Asian Studies at Kyoto University, said Laotian authorities were increasingly concerned that protests in neighbouring Thailand and Myanmar would have a spillover effect on Laos.
Last October, demonstrations in Thailand led to rare expressions of solidarity with protesters in Bangkok among Laotian netizens who launched a hashtag campaign, “if Lao politics was good”, on Twitter.
Young Laotians took the rare move of pointing out the shortcomings in their country, ranging from the lack of democracy and free speech, to the growing income gap, high rates of illiteracy and devastation of Laos’ natural resources.
However, signs of dissent do not appear to be widespread in the landlocked country due to close surveillance by Vientiane, which does not tolerate opposition and has often inflicted hefty prison terms on dissenters. Rights campaigners say government critics have disappeared, such as activist Od Sayavong who reportedly fled to Thailand.
Pavin said there was a sort of cross-border solidarity going on, especially between Thai and Myanmar protesters, and there was little doubt that “Lao authorities may fear that what has happened in Thailand (and Myanmar) could instigate unrest in their own countries”.
“People talked about the ‘domino theory’ during the Cold War. But this theory has returned with the domino of democracy, which could inspire protesters in these countries to give themselves support and set up a kind of alliance,” said Pavin.
A source from Laos, who did not want to be named, said that if the political unrest or instability in Myanmar dragged on, the Laotian government might be forced to express positions or support within the Asean framework. “Otherwise, it will have to bear some sort of economic consequences. Laos has relative high economic linkages in terms of trade and foreign direct investment,” the source said.
In 2019, the Lao government said domestic and foreign investment that year would increase to over US$2.7 billion, equivalent to 14 per cent of its GDP.
ECONOMIC AND PANDEMIC CHALLENGES
Sithanonxay Suvannaphakdy, lead economic affairs researcher at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said Laos’ election would have a limited impact on its socio-economic development as elected representatives had been unable to respond to the needs of the people “due in part to their limited power and limitation of state budget”.
“The key challenge for the administration now is the decline of global investments due to the pandemic,” Suvannaphakdy said.
Given party secretary general Sisoulith’s advocacy for regulatory and procedural reforms to facilitate trade and investment over the past five years, Suvannaphakdy said a more conducive business environment that fosters the growth of domestic enterprises and attracts more foreign investors is likely to be put in place over the next few years.
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Suvannaphakdy added that even though the Covid-19 pandemic was well controlled in Laos, a sustained revival of economic activities requires a successful containment of the outbreak both within and outside the country.
Since Laos announced its first two coronavirus infections in March last year, the country with a 7.1 million population has recorded a total of 45 cases and no deaths.
“The persistent outbreak of Covid-19 in its key trading partners such as Thailand and in the rest of the world, coupled with the emergence of the fast-spreading variant, could reduce the regional and global demand for goods and services from Laos, and hence could weaken its economic recovery in 2021,” Suvannaphakdy said.
In its five-year socio-economic plan unveiled last month, Vientiane said it hoped to grow at 4 per cent annually until 2025, mainly through maintaining growth, infrastructural improvements, and encouraging domestic and foreign investors to carry out large-scale projects.
The country is eyeing an annual average per capita income of US$2,887 in 2025, up from its current US$2,500. In contrast, Thailand’s current per capita income stands at US$6,450.
But growth is expected to rebound to 4.9 per cent this year, the Bank said, assuming that Covid-19 is brought under control, the government’s fiscal support measures are implemented effectively, and that there are no new interruptions to global economy recovery.
However, analysts said that given how Covid-19 has affected important sectors such as tourism, the 4 per cent seems unrealistic for now.
There are also concerns that Laos will be drawn further into China’s orbit, given that the Southeast Asian country has a wealth of natural resources that Beijing hopes to extract from to fuel its economic growth.
