Is Toshihiro Nikai, the ‘most pro-China’ politician in Japan’s ruling LDP, losing his shine?

Nikai, the LDP No 2 who leads its strongest faction and finessed Yoshihide Suga’s appointment as prime minister, is facing growing unrest within the party over his influence

Scandals within his faction have tarnished his reputation, and there is also increasing resistance among the party’s conservative wing to his long-standing close ties to Beijing

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China’s President Xi Jinping holds hands with Toshihiro Nikai from Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party during a 2015 China-Japan friendship exchange meeting in Beijing. Photo: Reuters

Published: 8:00am, 18 Feb 2021Updated: 8:18am, 18 Feb 2021

Just under four months ago, the politician described as the “most pro-Chinese” in Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was sitting pretty.

Fresh from hosting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in November, Toshihiro Nikai – the secretary general of the unassailable LDP and head of the largest and most powerful faction in the party – had just finessed the appointment of Yoshihide Suga as prime minister, making him the undisputed kingmaker of the Diet.

Suga has since made a number of politically damaging missteps – including ignoring his own government’s recommendation to stay at home during the pandemic to have dinner out with a group that included Nikai in December – and his public support rate has collapsed from the mid 60 per cent range to below 40 per cent. He also suffers from unfavourable comparisons to his predecessor, Shinzo Abe.

“Suga does not have a large faction in the party to rely on for support, so he was grateful that Nikai gave him his backing after Abe announced late last summer that he would be stepping down,” said Yoichi Shimada, a professor of politics and international relations at Fukui Prefectural University, adding that Nikai had made it clear he had no ambitions to be prime minister himself.

However, Nikai’s problems have grown in parallel with those of the man he worked hard to elevate. His reputation has been tarnished by a series of scandals involving members of his Shisuikai faction, including when Anri Kawai was found guilty of vote-buying in the 2019 general election and Akimoto Tsukasa was indicted for accepting bribes from a Chinese company in connection with a casino resort project.

LDP secretary general Toshihiro Nikai delivers a speech in 2017 upon being conferred an honorary professorship at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Photo: Kyodo

There is also growing unrest within the LDP to Nakai’s influence, and his apparently cosy ties to Beijing are a major problem in a year in which the government hopes to be re-elected.

Underlining the importance that Beijing places on its working relationship with Nikai was the praise from Foreign Minister Wang after a state visit in 2019. At the time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs quoted Wang as saying that Nikai “has always firmly promoted the development of bilateral relations, especially friendly exchanges between the two peoples, and has made enormous efforts to this end. The Chinese side appreciates such gestures.”