US-China rivalry will persist, fuel swings between ‘cold war and cold peace’: ex-Singapore minister
- In a wide-ranging talk, former foreign minister George Yeo praised Beijing’s move to use markets rather than military might to achieve its goals
- War is not on the cards, Yeo said even as he warned of the risks of US support for Taiwan
There could be “occasional skirmishes” and accidents can happen, he cautioned, but war is not on the cards.
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Yeo, who served 23 years in the Singapore government helming portfolios including foreign affairs and trade and industry, said that China’s ability to maintain its domestic economy and ensure its own supplies of nickel, iron ore or nanochip technology, would give it flexibility in managing external relations, particularly with the US.
“They are determined that whatever the Americans do to them, they will be able to continue developing,” Yeo said, in the dialogue helmed by OCBC Group’s CEO Samuel Tsien.
Asked by Tsien if US-China competition in the fields of technology and military hardware would define the rise of both nations, Yeo said: “That is how the West sees China. In their own image, but that is not China’s own historical experience or wisdom.”
“Again, if you have to move military forces, you’ve already lost. Only poor leaders resort to military force to achieve their objectives,” he said.
Referring to criticisms of China’s “coercive diplomacy” – such as it inflicting trade investigations and tariffs on Australian goods amid heightening diplomatic tensions – Yeo said it was “far better to use your market and economic devices than to fall back on gunboats and fighter planes”.
Pointing to the ancient Chinese military treatise The Art of War by Sun Tzu, Yeo said: “Genius is when you’re able to achieve your objectives just by manoeuvres, without having to fire a single shot.”
“Almost without thinking through the consequences or understanding the history, US politicians, partly because of domestic politics, are blithely encouraging Taiwanese independence. And the Taiwanese are reacting to it,” he said.
However, Yeo interpreted China’s flexing of its military muscles as a bid to avoid going to war.
“If they don’t do all these things, the push for independence will be irresistible and then war will be inevitable. So they’re doing everything they can now for peace, but which may require them to be firm and, sometimes, to show a willingness to fight.”
Asked what this ongoing superpower struggle meant for Singapore, Yeo said being caught between larger forces in uncomfortable situations highlighted the imperative to be “alert” and nimble to survive.
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“We should continue to maintain that position, be neutral, be friendly, be unthreatening. If anyone presses us too strongly, then we have to adjust position and reach out to the other side just to send a message to the side which presses us too strongly. This must be our diplomacy. It is Singapore’s diplomacy. It must be Asean’s diplomacy.”