‘Inept’ no more? India’s rejuvenated Rahul Gandhi gears up to take on PM Modi in 2024 election
- Gandhi’s cross-country march contributed to the Congress party’s resounding majority secured in Karnataka polls last month, say analysts
- Even as he battles a criminal conviction in a defamation case in Indian courts, Gandhi now has ‘greater ideological clarity to reinvent himself’
It could make all the difference in next year’s general election for Congress, which has lost its dominance and given way to the highly charismatic Modi who has led the ruling BJP to victories in two successive parliamentary elections.
But ever since Gandhi embarked on a cross-country Bharat Jodo Yatra (Unite India March) last September to mingle with the public and challenge Hindu nationalist BJP’s “hate-filled politics”, things have slowly started turning around for Congress.
Gandhi’s cross-country march contributed to Congress’ resounding majority win in Karnataka polls last month, analysts say.
“Rahul Gandhi now has greater ideological clarity and that has enabled him to reinvent himself,” said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, author of the book Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times. “This has made BJP uncomfortable and unsure of whether he will be an electoral force that can damage its chances in 2024.”
Unlike many opposition leaders who had been shy about taking a public stance that might displease the majority-Hindu population, Gandhi had clearly articulated his support for minorities by saying they should be treated like younger siblings, he said.
Gandhi is battling a criminal conviction in a defamation case for mocking the Modi surname in Indian courts, for which he has been expelled from India’s lower house of parliament. That may have unwittingly bolstered his political stature.
Certain sections of the public felt “that the law is being used differently for different people”, as even BJP leaders made all kinds of remarks, said Mukhopadhyay.
Gandhi’s reinvention
Gandhi has often been derided on social media by BJP sympathisers as Pappu – a person who knows little, is inept and bumbling. “He can no longer be portrayed by the moniker,” said Mukhopadhyay.
While the BJP’s plank of Hindu identity, which is the majority religion, struck a chord with sections of the Indian population, such an ideology did not resonate with a significant portion who believed in secularity, he added.
The strongest indication of whether BJP’s defeat in Karnataka means that a majority are getting disenchanted with its play on religion will come in state elections towards the year-end in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram.
Beyond bolstering its rule in individual states, the outcome will be a pointer to next year’s general election because together the five states account for 15 per cent of seats in parliament’s lower house.
Of these, Congress appears weakest in the northwestern state of Rajasthan where it could face an anti-incumbency wave because it is in power as well as the problem of a divided house. Its top state leaders, Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot, have been vying for the chief minister’s position.
“Until now, the Congress national leadership has not been able to take any effective action,” said Smita Gupta, an independent political analyst, adding that leaders like Sonia Gandhi (Rahul’s mother) and party president Mallikarjun Kharge needed to resolve the differences.
It would have its work cut out as well in Telangana and Mizoram, ruled by regional parties Telangana Rashtra Samithi and Mizo National Front, respectively.
However, Congress appears on a stronger footing in Madhya Pradesh, where people appear unhappy with BJP’s rule under Shivraj Singh Chouhan, as well as Chhattisgarh, where Congress’ Bhupesh Baghel has steered the state well as chief minister.
Regardless of state poll verdicts, however, victory or defeat in the parliamentary elections would most importantly depend on whether India’s disparate regional political parties came together to field at least one joint candidate against the BJP and its allies in each of 543 seats in parliament’s lower house, Gupta said.
Some prominent opposition leaders such as Aam Aadmi Party’s Arvind Kejriwal, Trinamool Congress’ Mamata Banerjee and Telangana Rashtra Samithi’s K. Chandrashekhar Rao were absent from the swearing-in ceremony of Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah.
“It shows we are still a long way away from opposition unity as things stand today,” said Gupta. But many people, especially those abroad, are seeing the Karnataka election results as a “sign of Congress revival”.
The development is likely to strengthen Gandhi’s hand in more ways than one.
The Congress leader came under fire from BJP leaders when, during a visit to Britain earlier this year, he expressed concerns about erosion of democratic institutions in the country during a conversation with the think tank Chatham House in London.
The BJP demanded an apology from the Congress leader for allegedly defaming India on foreign soil.
From May 28, Gandhi is expected to visit San Francisco, Washington DC and New York, where he will address two public meetings, meet lawmakers and interact with university students and Wall Street executives to convey his vision of “real democracy”, according to Indian Overseas Congress chairperson Sam Pitroda.
“Rahul Gandhi is likely to get a more positive reception (during the US visit) to any criticism he makes of the Modi government,” Gupta said.
At the same time, it will be premature to conclude that Modi’s sheen of popularity has started wearing off.
Modi received a rockstar-like welcome with thousands chanting his name when he arrived at a stadium in Australia’s Sydney, as part of a bilateral meeting with Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese this week.
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Indian PM Modi receives rare, rock-star welcome from Australian leader Albanese
The visits of the two Indian leaders may not overlap significantly, given that Modi’s is an official state visit. But both leaders would like to be on the right side of the US because of its “outsize role” as a geopolitical ally, said Joshi.
They are also likely to have a common agenda in trying to shore up support from the diaspora, especially as Indian Americans like Kamala Harris, Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy play an increasingly important political role, analysts say.
Modi might try to leverage the meeting with Biden back home as a testimony to the respect that world leaders had for him, while Gandhi would try to demonstrate that the entire Indian diaspora was backing him, said Mukhopadhyay.
As the runway to the general election gets shorter, neither the BJP nor Congress is likely to yield an inch.
“Everybody will have to be on their toes over the next few months. I am very happy that Rahul Gandhi is plunging ahead (with a trip to the US) and is not going to take a break after the Karnataka election,” said Mukhopadhyay, adding that earlier predictions for a BJP walkover in 2024 were no longer true. “It’s a good sign. If democracy becomes healthy, then it’s good for the country.”
