The Philippines’ transparency overdrive and alliance build-up to deter China in the West Philippine Sea have earned praise and rebuke. How does the strategy measure up against desired results? What did it achieve and is it due for calibration?
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Under President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, the Philippines pursued a new approach in the maritime hotspot. Manila adopted a transparency initiative to expose China’s grey zone actions that have disrupted regular economic and security activities around the Southeast Asian country’s administered features and waters in its western exclusive economic zone. By naming and shaming Beijing, the intention was that reputational costs would compel China to change course. This did not materialise. While Beijing may have been initially caught off guard by the new approach, it soon adjusted and brought its cameras, videos, and narratives to refute and counter Manila’s campaign.
Another factor in the equation was the deepening alliance between the Philippines and its partners, such as the US. American military access was expanded, and US missiles were deployed on Philippine soil. A pact that facilitated joint training with Japan was signed, and a similar deal with France is under consideration. Combined military exercises with allies and partners got bigger, bolder and more frequent. The theory was that such activities and posturing would discourage further Chinese intrusions. This assumption did not hold, either. Beijing became the uninvited observer of such multilateral naval exercises, daringly trailing allied sails in the South China Sea and even conducting concurrent manoeuvres on its own or with Russia in response.
Armed Chinese coastguard personnel approach Philippine troops on a resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on June 17. Photo: AP
Far from easing tensions, mutual recriminations heightened the temperature in choppy waters. Both sides pandered to their domestic base. Maritime incidents worsened alarmingly, ranging from the use of lasers, dangerous manoeuvres, ship collisions, and water-cannon blasting to a physical scuffle that resulted in injuries to sailors. Flashpoints flared up at the Second Thomas, Scarborough, and Sabina Shoals. Chinese vessels sighted in Philippine waters increased. Beyond the West Philippine Sea, they were also spotted in the Philippine Sea in the east and Basilan and Sibutu Straits in the south. Close calls also occurred in the sky, with People’s Liberation Army aircraft dropping flares in the path of a Philippine Air Force plane patrolling in the vicinity of Scarborough Shoal.
