Opinion | Hope for China-India border dispute: turn off the megaphones, sensibly reduce forces, maintain calm in Tibet
- While the situation is calmer than it was last year, relations between Beijing and New Delhi continue to fray, and inadvertent border clashes are still a risk
- Both sides can move along talks by ceasing publicly aired diplomacy; thinning their forces; and ensuring Tibet, or Arunachal Pradesh, does not become a flashpoint
The old India-China diplomacy consisted of four main elements: regular summitry; military confidence-building measures (CBMs); border negotiations; and trade. My suggestion last year was to abandon high-profile summitry for now, turn to backchannel diplomacy between politically trusted envoys instead, and to replace border patrolling with virtual patrolling that relies on remotely controlled airborne vehicles such as drones, as well as sensors, cameras, and satellites.
However, old and “new” diplomatic measures have not prevented the growing downturn in bilateral relations between India and China, nor have they fully obviated the risk of inadvertent border clashes. While existing CBMs continue to have value – they prevented the escalation of the Galwan fight into a wider and more violent conflict – they are clearly not enough to defuse the continuing eyeball-to-eyeball stand-off between border troops in eastern Ladakh. China-India trade, which remained at a very robust US$87 billion last year – notwithstanding New Delhi’s moves towards limited economic decoupling from Beijing – has not helped stabilise bilateral relations.
A year later, this new diplomacy can therefore be supplemented by further diplomatic initiatives that are based on modest confidence building. At least three things would help to add momentum to the ongoing talks and negotiations.
First, both sides need to end megaphone, publicly aired diplomacy. They have already taken steps to do so since the crisis events of July last year. Accusatory and denunciatory language in public has receded, but this needs to be sustained. In addition, it would be helpful to put a lid on the public announcements of every round of talks – when they are expected to be convened, who sat at the table, and what was or was not achieved. New Delhi and Beijing also need to stop leaks that reveal the purported statements and stances adopted by the two sides during diplomatic and military talks.
