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Opinion | How India and Pakistan can make a ceasefire agreement stick

  • Domestic political pressures and a deep mistrust between security establishments have long impeded India and Pakistan’s ability to maintain a ceasefire
  • But it is possible for both sides to take a series of mutually reinforcing steps that would help make one that lasts, says Ameya Kilara

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A paramilitary soldier keeps a vigil from inside a building under construction in Srinagar, Indian-administered Kashmir, in April. Photo: AP
When India and Pakistan released a joint statement in February renewing their commitment to a ceasefire along the Line of Control in Kashmir, it appeared to push pause on the pair’s rapidly deteriorating bilateral relationship. The fragility of such ceasefire agreements was brought home barely two months later, however, when reports emerged of troops engaging in cross-border gunfire on May 3.
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India and Pakistan’s ability to arrive at and maintain a ceasefire is impeded by domestic political pressures on the leaders of both countries, as well as a deep mistrust between their security establishments, and concerns among Kashmiri people of being overlooked. But it is possible for both sides to take a series of mutually reinforcing steps that would help make a ceasefire last.

First, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his advisers will need to frame a domestic public narrative to accompany the ceasefire. This should link the image of strong leadership with the courage to pursue peace, and portray terrorists as enemies of that peace. Doing so will involve a subtle shift away from portraying Pakistan as the enemy, towards assigning blame to particular groups alone.

After terror attacks take place, government statements should declare that India will not allow its peace efforts with Pakistan to be deterred by groups that are antithetical to peace in the region.

There are lessons to be drawn from how India’s political leadership has justified keeping diplomatic and military negotiations open with China, even after the military confrontations that have taken place along their disputed border since June 2020.

Anniversary of loss of special status for Indian-held Kashmir sparks protests on Pakistan side

Anniversary of loss of special status for Indian-held Kashmir sparks protests on Pakistan side

Second, in the event of a crisis such as an escalation at the Line of Control or a terror attack in India, backchannel interlocutors, delegated by both countries, should agree in advance on a series of steps to de-escalate and keep talks going. These steps could include joint statements by the two governments immediately condemning any attack; activation of bilateral channels of communication; efforts to moderate hostile rhetoric by government officials; and perhaps bolder measures such as a joint investigation team to identify perpetrators.

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