Opinion | How the coronavirus may change the geopolitics of Southeast Asia

Everything eventually ends. What will Southeast Asia and Asean look like when the novel coronavirus pandemic runs its course? Historically, all pandemics have had economic and political effects. This essay speculates about the long-term impact of the Covid-19 illness on Southeast Asia in three interrelated dimensions: economics, politics, and geopolitics.

The coronavirus outbreak seems to have plateaued in China. Beijing first bungled by trying to cover up, allowing the virus to take hold in China and rapidly spread beyond its borders. But the draconian measures only a Leninist system is capable of taking brought it under control, albeit at great cost, not all of which was borne by China.

The global epicentre is now in Europe. Infections are rapidly spreading in the United States. Like China, the West fumbled its initial responses. Democracies are slow to react until shocked into action. But these systems are resilient, have strong economic, scientific and administrative capabilities, and have begun to mobilise. The costs to everyone will again be great. But there is no question that they will eventually get a grip on the disease and bring it under control in their own way.