August 26 also saw Trump claim Chinese officials had called “our top people” – namely US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin – the previous day to “get back to the table” to resolve the trade war between the two countries.

But Trump’s version was called into doubt after a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said he was not aware of the weekend call.

Understandably, the president’s remarkable flip-flops initially sent stock markets worldwide on a roller-coaster ride.

Trump and his supporters may see such antics as part of his negotiation strategy, which has given the US the upper hand at the negotiation table.

But for some Chinese observers, Trump’s outbursts gave off a hint of desperation, as Chinese officials have become more confident in confronting his brinkmanship negotiation tactics and are prepared for the trade war to drag on.

In March 2018,when the trade war first started, Trump famously tweeted: “Trade wars are good, and easy to win.”

Initially, Chinese officials were caught off guard by his unconventional, brazen and hyperbole-laden negotiation style, and the leadership was criticised for underestimating Trump and his team of Chinese hawks’ desire to impose maximum pressure to extract trade and investment concessions from Beijing amid a much wider agenda to push back against China’s rise.

No troops, no concessions, no end in sight for Hong Kong unrest

After a year and a half of sparring and on-and-off negotiations, the Chinese have learned their lesson by not dancing to Trump’s tune and instead hunkering down for a drawn-out process.

As things have turned out, time appears to be on China’s side as long as it remains patient and steadfast.

The Trump administration’s trump card to make China submit is supposedly that the US economy is going up while the Chinese economy is slowing down. The trade war is meant to inflict far greater pain on China, reducing foreign investment and creating more unemployment.

But over the past year, the US economy has shown more vulnerabilities and is not as strong as the president has trumpeted.

Over the past couple of weeks, the so-called yield-curve inversion – when the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury notes sinks below that of the two-year notes – has happened multiple times. It is an ominous recession signal, as yield-curve inversions have preceded all recessions in the US since 1950.

The trade hostilities have made businesses think twice about investments, and have dismayed more US farmers – among Trump’s most ardent supporters – as China cut off purchases of soybeans and other US agricultural products, according to US media reports.

Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is not as bad as expected. Since the last quarter of 2018, Chinese officials have become cautiously confident of riding out the economic turbulence brought on by the trade war.

On Monday, Xi chaired a high-level meeting to discuss efforts to improve regional economic planning and to upgrade industrial chains, Xinhua reported, adding that China was the only country in the world to have a presence in every industrial category.

US-China trade war: hardliners in Beijing are gaining influence

Politically, the Trump administration assumed the downward pressure on the Chinese economy, exacerbated by the trade war, would have exerted huge political pressure on Xi and weakened his leadership at home, thus forcing him to compromise on a deal.

But there has been no notable sign of this. In fact, Chinese media reports that Washington is forcing Beijing to accept “an unequal treaty”, coupled with Trump’s hyperbole-laden flip-flops, have elevated the voices of the hardliners in the Chinese government to take a tough stand against the US.

China’s recent decision to allow the yuan to fall below the psychologically important level of seven to the US dollar is a case in point.

Breaking the level has been a slow and painful decision, but it has given China a powerful weapon to counter Trump’s threat to further increase tariffs on imported Chinese goods.

Moreover, as Xi’s supporters are working overtime on preparations to have him rule beyond 2022 when his second term expires, Trump is facing a re-election bid next year. If the trade war continues to deteriorate, that would most likely tank the stock markets and help tip the US economy into a recession.

That will in turn jeopardise Trump’s re-election chances as the strong economy has been his main selling point to his base of supporters. As one cynic quips, losing the White House next year could well mean Trump would have a good chance of landing in the jail house afterwards. Having said that, China still very much wants a trade deal with the US, not least because it would provide a much-needed impetus for the Chinese government to overcome resistance from domestic interest groups and push ahead with reforms and further opening up of the economy.

Carrie Lam can defuse the Hong Kong protests by taking on the property tycoons

So how long will it take for both sides to find a way out of the stand-off?

As previously argued in this space, as Beijing and Washington have already agreed to most of a deal, the real deal-breaker appears to be how it should be enforced. Washington has insisted on the right to punish Beijing in the event it violates the deal, in which case Beijing should not oppose or retaliate. But Beijing believes Washington’s demand amounts to “an unequal treaty”, reminiscent of past humiliations China suffered in the colonial era.

Agreeing on the deal-breaker would probably mean the agreement could be wrapped up in a day or two. Otherwise, the war could drag on for many more months to come.

Either way, China appears to be better prepared now and time is not on Trump’s side. ■

Wang Xiangwei is the former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post. He is now based in Beijing as editorial adviser to the paper