Collin Koh

On Reflection | US-China tensions: is war the endgame in the South China Sea?

A close encounter between a Chinese destroyer and the USS Decatur may have been an attempt by Beijing to keep tensions from crossing into an outright armed confrontation for which neither side is ready

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Weapons training aboard a US destroyer in the South China Sea. Photo: Reuters

Collin Koh

Published: 7:30am, 6 Oct 2018Updated: 11:58am, 6 Oct 2018

The latest freedom of navigation operations by the USS Decatur and its close encounter with a Chinese destroyer in the South China Sea – when the two vessels came within 41 metres of each other – have ratcheted up tensions between the United States and China.

And those tensions were already high. Recently they have included US sanctions on a People’s Liberation Army research unit for procuring Russian weapons, the announcement of a US arms deal for Taiwan, Beijing’s recall of its navy chief from the US and its denial of a US Navy port visit to Hong Kong, and the cancellation of a planned high-level security dialogue.

These developments can be seen in the broader context of an increasingly acrimonious relationship between the two powers, not least over the ongoing US-China trade row. But as far the South China Sea issues are concerned, the Sino-US divergences and political-military friction have long preceded the trade disagreements. In response to Beijing having reneged on its 2015 promise not to militarise the disputed waters, the PLA Navy was disinvited from this year’s multinational Rim of the Pacific exercise hosted in Hawaii.

This latest Chinese action in the South China Sea could have been meant as a tit-for-tat move by Beijing to express displeasure, yet it may also be an attempt to keep tensions from going past boiling point and crossing into outright armed confrontation. Neither power is ready for such an eventuality. The political and economic repercussions are too colossal as even a thought to entertain.

For one, the South China Sea remains an international medium through which the global community at large enjoys freedom of passage by sea or air. Thus far, there has been no attempt by any party to impede civilian passage. That would amount to an act of aggression on international economic well-being, since an estimated one-third of the world’s shipping passes through the sea.

This is, however, not the same for military passage. Beijing has challenged foreign military aircraft flying close to its garrisoned South China Sea features – much as, in this latest case, its destroyer’s manoeuvres challenged those of the USS Decatur.

An uninhabited Spratly island in the disputed South China Sea. Photo: Reuters

In China’s case, backing down means conceding its claims to the South China Sea and long-standing call against foreign interference in the disputes. This would carry unimaginable political costs for the ruling Communist Party and for President Xi Jinping’s personal prestige and legitimacy. For the US, backing down would undermine what it has been fighting for: freedom of passage for civilian and military vessels alike, and more broadly, it would cast in doubt its security commitment to the region. That has colossal implications on its credibility as a global superpower.