Coronavirus: Asia-Pacific economies could pay greater price in ‘Pandemic 2.0’, MSD report says
- Annual projected losses could hit US$11.8 billion for Singapore and US$13.8 billion for Hong Kong if Covid-19 infections were to worsen
- The report found that the economic burden could reach 2.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent of GDP in Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia and South Korea
The report, published by US drug maker MSD, also known as Merck in North America, found that in this projected “Pandemic 2.0” scenario, the economic burden could reach 2.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent of gross domestic product of five markets – Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia and South Korea.
“We can’t predict what that [a Pandemic 2.0] will look like, but there is still potential for additional waves, and for new variants emerging as well,” said Garry Daniels, media spokesman for MSD.
“It is to reframe the conversation with some of those decision-makers and policymakers that we need to be prepared that the pandemic could evolve in a way that we are not potentially expecting.”
The MSD report said that if current pandemic conditions were to persist, the projected annual economic costs would be US$5.3 billion in Hong Kong, or 1.4 per cent of GDP.
Coronavirus: World Health Organization declares Covid-19 pandemic emergency over
But in the case of “Pandemic 2.0”, which entails a higher infection rate and severity of disease, the cost could go up to US$13.8 billion, or around 3.8 per cent of GDP.
Similarly, in Singapore, current prevailing conditions would result in a total annual economic cost of US$2.6 billion (0.6 per cent of GDP), but worsening transmission rates could cost the country US$11.8 billion (2.8 per cent of GDP).
Indirect costs far worse
One of the main takeaways from the report, Daniels said, was that the economic burdens of the pandemic were primarily driven by indirect costs.
The assessment considered two categories of expenses resulting from the pandemic: the direct costs of illness, which include the expenses incurred by healthcare systems in managing treatment facilities; and indirect costs, which include productivity losses due to missed work.
Up to 96 per cent of the total ongoing economic costs of the pandemic in the five markets came from these indirect costs, far exceeding direct costs across the board. And these costs are likely to persist in the long term.
“The indirect costs estimated in this evaluation are likely to remain high even with a transition from the pandemic to endemic phase of Covid-19,” the MSD news release said.
“Some of the data that came through showed that areas such as logistics, the airline industry and the wider travel industry have been impacted and potentially have broader impacts moving forward in terms of economic costs and loss of productivity,” Daniels said.
“This gives a bit of an insight into what the full economic costs of the pandemic could look like, outside the direct costs to healthcare systems.”