Can New Zealand really eliminate the coronavirus? Experts are divided

After a month-long lockdown, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has suggested her country could become the first to entirely eliminate the virus within its borders

It’s a strategy that has attracted attention in Australia, where there have been more deaths but fewer confirmed virus cases per capita than in its neighbour

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Medical staff take swabs from shoppers at a pop-up community Covid-19 testing station in Christchurch, New Zealand, on April 17, 2020. Photo: AP

Published: 7:00am, 19 Apr 2020Updated: 9:06pm, 15 May 2020

As governments around the world were busy trying to “flatten the curve” of coronavirus cases last month, New Zealand set itself a radical goal – squash the curve by eliminating new transmissions completely.

After initiating a month-long nationwide lockdown on March 26 in response to the pandemic, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and her cabinet will on Monday decide whether they have made enough progress to ease some of the most severe restrictions on everyday life anywhere in the Western world.

By taking even harsher measures than democratic peers such as Britain, the United States and Australia, the island nation hopes to not only avert mass sickness and death, but avoid prolonging the massive social and economic consequences of a shutdown by emerging from the pandemic sooner.

“Flattening the curve is better than nothing, but as we’ve seen around the world, can still lead to many deaths, health systems stretched to breaking point, and continued disruption and restrictions for months to come,” said Michael Plank, a statistics expert at the University of Canterbury whose modelling has informed the government’s response.

New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is widely anticipated to soon announce a loosening of some coronavirus restrictions. Photo: Xinhua

So far, the Level 4 measures – including closing schools and all non-essential businesses, requiring people to stay indoors except for grocery shopping or exercise close to home, and urging them to avoid those outside their household – have produced promising results.

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