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Jonathan White

The World Cup is almost to the knockout stage, which begins on Saturday, and while some teams have already made it through to the round of 16, many are doing the maths to see how they can make it.
Here’s a rundown of every possible permutation for all the nations that can keep their dream alive and what they need to do.
We’ve also taken a look at the probabilities of qualification generated by number-crunching website FiveThirtyEight’s 2018 World Cup predictions, as well as the latest odds to get out of the group being offered by bookmakers.

Group A
Already qualified: Russia, Uruguay
What can happen?
The winner of Russia and Uruguay’s Monday night match takes the group. A draw would see Russia top on goal difference.

Group B
Already qualified: None
What can happen? Iran are through if they beat Portugal on Tuesday morning. Portugal are through with either a win or a draw. Spain are through with a win or a draw over already out Morocco but can progress with a loss if Portugal win.
World Cup star Cristiano Ronaldo ‘born to be the best’ says Iran’s former Manchester United and Portugal coach Carlos Queiroz
What’s the likelihood?
According to FiveThirtyEight, Spain are 99 per cent likely to make the round of 16, Portugal are 87 per cent and Iran 15 per cent
Odds to qualify: Portugal ($1.10), Spain ($1.01), Iran ($6)

Group C
Already qualified: France
What can happen? Denmark play France and a win or draw on Tuesday night would take the Danes through, as would a loss provided Australia don’t beat already out Peru (and get a two goal swing). France need a point to be sure of top spot.
What World Cup games can I watch today? Cristiano Ronaldo and Sergio Ramos hoping for place in last 16
What’s the likelihood? Denmark are 86 per cent sure to make the next round with Australia just 14 per cent.
Odds to qualify: Denmark ($1.14), Australia ($5.50)

Group D
Already qualified: Croatia
What can happen? Argentina need to beat Nigeria on Wednesday morning and cross their fingers that Croatia do not lose to Iceland. Nigeria are through with a win or even a draw if Iceland don’t win by a two goal margin.
Iceland face Fifa World Cup 2018 exit, but their hardcore Hong Kong following still believe
What’s the likelihood? Argentina are 48 per cent, Nigeria 45 per cent and Iceland 7 per cent to make the next stage.
Odds to qualify: Argentina ($1.75), Nigeria ($2.75), Iceland ($7)
Group E
Already qualified: None
What can happen? A win or draw against Serbia on Wednesday night sees Brazil through. Switzerland can stop Neymar and the boys finishing top if they better Brazil’s result or win by a bigger margin to pip them on goal difference.
A draw or even a loss to already out Costa Rica can take the Swiss to the knockouts, provided Serbia also lose. Serbia can still make it if they beat Brazil or draw while Switzerland are beaten by a couple of goals.
Fifa World Cup: Sweden’s Jimmy Durmaz takes a stand against ‘terrorist’ and ‘Taliban’ barbs after Germany defeat
What is the likelihood?
Switzerland are 97 per cent assured of going through, Brazil are 89 per cent and Serbia have a slim hope at 14 per cent chance.
Odds to qualify: Switzerland ($1.04), Brazil, ($1.10), Serbia ($5.50)
Group F
Already qualified: None
What can happen? A draw sees Mexico through but a win over Sweden on Thursday morning assures them top spot and three wins from three. Germany are through if they match or better Sweden’s result when they play South Korea.
The Koreans need a two-goal plus win over Germany and Sweden to lose to sneak in. Germany and Sweden could yet be separated by their head-to-head result, which would see the holders through.
Watch: tidy performances as Japan and Senegal fans clean up at World Cup
What is the likelihood?
Germany are 87 per cent to go through, Mexico 72 per cent, Sweden 40 per cent and South Korea 1 per cent
Odds to qualify: Germany ($1.12), Mexico ($1.16), Sweden ($2.90), South Korea ($34)

Group G
Already qualified: Belgium, England
What can happen? Belgium play England on Thursday night with the winner taking the top spot. If it’s a draw then it will be decided by fair play as the teams are currently level on goal difference and goals scored.
What time is the World Cup on and where can I watch it in Hong Kong? Your guide to Now TV and Viu TV games
What is the likelihood?
FiveThirtyEight sees England favoured to top the group by 59 per cent to 41 per cent. 
Group H
Already qualified: None
What can happen? If Japan draw with eliminated Poland on Friday morning they are through. Senegal v Colombia is a winner-takes-all affair but the Lions of Teranga only need a draw against the South Americans to keep their run in Russia going.
Fifa World Cup 2018: Chinese Super League stars on show but Ryan Giggs highlights struggles for players moving to mainland
What is the likelihood?
Japan are favourites at 81 per cent, Colombia 61 per cent and Senegal 58 per cent despite needing just a draw.
Odds to qualify: Japan ($1.12), Colombia ($1.62), Senegal ($1.72)






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Fifa World Cup 2018

Fifa World Cup: who can reach the round of 16? How Cristiano Ronaldo, Neymar and Leo Messi can make Russia 2018 knockouts

Lionel Messi of Argentina reacts after missing a penalty against Iceland. Photo: EPA

epa06825577 Diego Costa (2nd L) of Spain celebrates with teammates after scoring the opening goal during the FIFA World Cup 2018 group B preliminary round soccer match between Iran and Spain in Kazan, Russia, 20 June 2018. (RESTRICTIONS APPLY: Editorial Use Only, not used in association with any commercial entity - Images must not be used in any form of alert service or push service of any kind including via mobile alert services, downloads to mobile devices or MMS messaging - Images must appear as still images and must not emulate match action video footage - No alteration is made to, and no text or image is superimposed over, any published image which: (a) intentionally obscures or removes a sponsor identification image; or (b) adds or overlays the commercial identification of any third party which is not officially associated with the FIFA World Cup) EPA-EFE/DIEGO AZUBEL EDITORIAL USE ONLY

Brazil's Neymar (C) celebrates with teammates Douglas Costa (7) and Casemiro (5) after scoring against Costa Rica during the second half of a World Cup Group E match in St. Petersburg on June 22, 2018. Brazil won 2-0. (Kyodo) ==Kyodo

epaselect epa06834806 Toni Kroos of Germany celebrates after scoring the winning goal during the FIFA World Cup 2018 group F preliminary round soccer match between Germany and Sweden in Sochi, Russia, 23 June 2018. Germany won 2-1. (RESTRICTIONS APPLY: Editorial Use Only, not used in association with any commercial entity - Images must not be used in any form of alert service or push service of any kind including via mobile alert services, downloads to mobile devices or MMS messaging - Images must appear as still images and must not emulate match action video footage - No alteration is made to, and no text or image is superimposed over, any published image which: (a) intentionally obscures or removes a sponsor identification image; or (b) adds or overlays the commercial identification of any third party which is not officially associated with the FIFA World Cup) EPA-EFE/RONALD WITTEK EDITORIAL USE ONLY

Soccer Football - World Cup - Group C - Denmark vs Australia - Samara Arena, Samara, Russia - June 21, 2018 Australia's Mile Jedinak celebrates scoring their first goal REUTERS/Pilar Olivares TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

England's Jesse Lingard reacts as he celebrates after scoring his team's third goal during the group G match between England and Panama at the 2018 soccer World Cup at the Nizhny Novgorod Stadium in Nizhny Novgorod , Russia, Sunday, June 24, 2018. (AP Photo/Matthias Schrader)

TOPSHOT - Russia fans celebrate during the Russia 2018 World Cup Group A football match between Russia and Egypt at the Saint Petersburg Stadium in Saint Petersburg on June 19, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / Paul ELLIS / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - NO MOBILE PUSH ALERTS/DOWNLOADS

epa06831416 Ahmed Musa of Nigeria celebrates after scoring the 2-0 goal during the FIFA World Cup 2018 group D preliminary round soccer match between Nigeria and Iceland in Volgograd, Russia, 22 June 2018. (RESTRICTIONS APPLY: Editorial Use Only, not used in association with any commercial entity - Images must not be used in any form of alert service or push service of any kind including via mobile alert services, downloads to mobile devices or MMS messaging - Images must appear as still images and must not emulate match action video footage - No alteration is made to, and no text or image is superimposed over, any published image which: (a) intentionally obscures or removes a sponsor identification image; or (b) adds or overlays the commercial identification of any third party which is not officially associated with the FIFA World Cup) EPA-EFE/ZURAB KURTSIKIDZE EDITORIAL USE ONLY

epa06837615 Juan Cuadrado of Colombia celebrates after scoring the 3-0 lead during the FIFA World Cup 2018 group H preliminary round soccer match between Poland and Colombia in Kazan, Russia, 24 June 2018. (RESTRICTIONS APPLY: Editorial Use Only, not used in association with any commercial entity - Images must not be used in any form of alert service or push service of any kind including via mobile alert services, downloads to mobile devices or MMS messaging - Images must appear as still images and must not emulate match action video footage - No alteration is made to, and no text or image is superimposed over, any published image which: (a) intentionally obscures or removes a sponsor identification image; or (b) adds or overlays the commercial identification of any third party which is not officially associated with the FIFA World Cup) EPA-EFE/ROBERT GHEMENT EDITORIAL USE ONLY

What time is the World Cup on and where can I watch it in Hong Kong? Your guide to Now TV and Viu TV games 

Football fans watch the 2018 Fifa World Cup Qualifier between Hong Kong and China. Photo: Felix Wong

FILE - In this Tuesday, Sept. 5, 2017 filer, Brazil's Neymar, center, fights for the ball with Colombia's Abel Aguilar, left, and James Rodriguez, during a 2018 Russia World Cup qualifying soccer match at the Roberto Melendez stadium in Barranquilla, Colombia. (AP Photo/Fernando Vergara, File)

epa06765877 Real Madrid's Cristiano Ronaldo celebrates with the trophy after the UEFA Champions League final between Real Madrid and Liverpool FC at the NSC Olimpiyskiy stadium in Kiev, Ukraine, 26 May 2018. Real Madrid won 3-1. EPA-EFE/SERGEY DOLZHENKO

TOPSHOT - A man reacts as he watches the the UEFA Champions League final football match, between Real Madrid and Liverpool, at a coffee shop in the Egyptian capital Cairo on May 26, 2018. On the wall is a painting of Liverpool Egytian forward Mohamed Salah. Liverpool suffered the loss of 44-goal top scorer Mohamed Salah to a shoulder injury on 31 minutes, after a tangle with Real defender Sergio Ramos. / AFP PHOTO / KHALED DESOUKI

Soccer Football - International Friendly - Argentina vs Haiti - La Bombonera, Buenos Aires, Argentina - May 29, 2018 Argentina's Lionel Messi in action with Haiti's Bryan Alceus REUTERS/Marcos Brindicci

epaselect epa05404586 Germany players (L-R: Mats Hummels, Joshua Kimmich, Thomas Mueller, Toni Kroos) react after winning the penalty shoot-out during the UEFA EURO 2016 quarter final match between Germany and Italy at Stade de Bordeaux in Bordeaux, France, 02 July 2016. (RESTRICTIONS APPLY: For editorial news reporting purposes only. Not used for commercial or marketing purposes without prior written approval of UEFA. Images must appear as still images and must not emulate match action video footage. Photographs published in online publications (whether via the Internet or otherwise) shall have an interval of at least 20 seconds between the posting.) EPA/VASSIL DONEV EDITORIAL USE ONLY

England's striker Marcus Rashford celebrates scoring England's second goal during the World Cup 2018 qualification football match between England and Slovakia at Wembley Stadium in London on September 4, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / Adrian DENNIS / NOT FOR MARKETING OR ADVERTISING USE / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE

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A rundown of every possible permutation from the last round of group games, plus odds and the probabilities from stats site FiveThirtyEight


Cristiano Ronaldo

Neymar

Fifa World Cup: who can reach the round of 16? How Cristiano Ronaldo, Neymar and Leo Messi can make Russia 2018 knockouts

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}A rundown of every possible permutation from the last round of group games, plus odds and the probabilities from stats site FiveThirtyEight

A rundown of every possible permutation from the last round of group games, plus odds and the probabilities from stats site FiveThirtyEight