bodyType

customContents

entityId

printArticlePageQuery

filter

article

body

urlAlias

articleSectionsContent

articleSeoArticle

articleSourceHeaderArticle

contentSchemaRenderContent

contentSubHeadlineContent

contentHeadlineContent

mainImagePrintArticleArticle

authorBlockPrintArticleArticle

contentSponsorTagContent

articlePianoPaywallContent

scmpYoutubeContent

hooksTrackPageViewArticle

query printArticlePageQuery(
  $entityId: String!
  $customContents: [CustomContentInput]
  $bodyType: BodyFormatTypeEnum
) {
  article(filter: {entityId: $entityId}) {
    entityId
    body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
      json
    }
    urlAlias
    ...articleSectionsContent
    ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4
    ...articleSourceHeaderArticle
    ...contentSchemaRenderContent
    ...contentSubHeadlineContent
    ...contentHeadlineContent
    ...mainImagePrintArticleArticle
    ...authorBlockPrintArticleArticle
    ...contentSponsorTagContent
    ...articlePianoPaywallContent
    ...scmpYoutubeContent
    ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle
    id
  }
}

fragment articlePianoPaywallContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent
}

fragment articleSectionsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection
      ...entityLink
      name
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment articleSeoArticle_3o8td4 on Article {
  ...hooksArticleSeoArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle
  entityId
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
  summary {
    text
  }
  subHeadline {
    text
  }
  body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
    text
  }
  keywords
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  topics {
    name
    entityId
    id
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  images {
    style(filter: {style: "768x768"}) {
      url
    }
  }
  readingTime
}

fragment articleSourceHeaderArticle on Article {
  urlAlias
  ...entityLink
}

fragment authorBlockPrintArticleArticle on Article {
  ...defaultArticleDateContent
  ...authorNamesArticle
}

fragment authorNameAuthor on Author {
  ...entityLink
  name
  entityUuid
}

fragment authorNamesArticle on Article {
  authorLocations
  authors {
    entityId
    location
    ...authorNameAuthor
    id
  }
}

fragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  socialHeadline
  ...contentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
}

fragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
    id
  }
  sections {
    value {
      relatedNewsletters {
        ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
        id
      }
      id
    }
  }
  ... on Article {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...blockquoteQuoteContent
  ...imageContent
  ...inlineWidgetContent
  ...photoGalleryWidgetContent
  ...scmpYoutubeContent
}

fragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  shortUrl
  socialHeadline
  headline
}

fragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  subHeadline {
    json
  }
  summary {
    json
  }
  ...contentSchemaRenderContent
}

fragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent
}

fragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  __typename
  entityId
  entityUuid
  urlAlias
  urlRedirect {
    toUrl
    id
  }
  application {
    entityId
    id
  }
  ... on Section {
    fullSectionPath {
      entityId
      id
    }
    parentSection
  }
  ...helpersAppBarVariantBase
  ...helpersApplicationBase
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...helpersSectionContent
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
}

fragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {
  name
}

fragment helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle on Article {
  entityId
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  disableOffPlatformContent
  sponsorType
  published
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
}

fragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {
  flattenTypeIds
  liveArticle {
    status
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    paywallTypes {
      entityUuid
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        entityId
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {
  entityId
  name
  alternativeName
  description {
    text
  }
  summary {
    text
  }
  homepageDescription {
    text
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {
  authors {
    types
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    sponsor {
      ...sponsorTagSponsor
      name
      type
      id
    }
    id
  }
  ... on Article {
    sponsorType
  }
  ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent
}

fragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdDate
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
}

fragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle
  entityId
  headline
  socialHeadline
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
  images {
    generic_og: style(filter: {style: "og_image_scmp_generic"}) {
      url
    }
    styles(filter: {styles: ["og_image_posties_article", "og_postmag", "og_image_style", "og_image_scmp_analysis", "og_image_scmp_explainer", "og_image_scmp_editorial", "og_image_scmp_fact_check", "og_image_scmp_debate", "og_image_scmp_live", "og_image_scmp_obituary", "og_image_scmp_opinion", "og_image_scmp_review", "og_image_scmp_series", "og_image_scmp_generic"]}) {
      url
      style
    }
    type
  }
  urlAlias
}

fragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        name
        entityId
        description {
          text
        }
        id
      }
    }
    ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  }
  flag
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  ...hooksContentHelperContent
}

fragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle
  ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle
  ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle
  flag
}

fragment hooksPaywallPromiseContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
}

fragment hooksTrackPageViewArticle on Article {
  entityId
  publishedDate
  headline
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  entityUuid
}

fragment imageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  ...checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent
}

fragment inlineWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent
}

fragment mainImagePrintArticleArticle on Article {
  images {
    title
    url
    isSlideshow
    size_652x446: style(filter: {style: "652x446"}) {
      url
    }
  }
}

fragment photoGalleryDialogContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment photoGalleryWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...photoGalleryDialogContent
}

fragment scmpYoutubeContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  publishedDate
}

fragment sponsorTagSponsor on Sponsor {
  name
  type
  images {
    url
  }
}


sections

types

disableOffPlatformContent

sponsorType

published

headline

socialHeadline

authors

images

publishedDate

updatedDate

summary

subHeadline

keywords

topics

readingTime

authorLocations

entityUuid

Frank Tang

A pension deficit and looming debt crisis driven by a rapidly greying population. That’s the nightmare scenario for Chinese authorities, including the nation’s central bank, who are increasingly worried about the financial implications of the country’s demographic challenges.
Official concern about the country’s population problems was highlighted by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) in an unusually frank research paper published last week.
The PBOC warned China had only about a decade left to enjoy the benefits of its large working age population, which has helped propel growth over the past four decades.
Authorities should “fully liberalise and encourage” childbirth to offset the economic effects of a falling fertility rate and ageing, warning “the pay as you go pension system can hardly cope with the ageing crisis”, the central bank said.
China population: plan to lift retirement age stokes workers’ anxiety as demographic crisis looms
The comments foreshadow worry about the results of the seventh national population census, which are expected to show a fast-evolving demographic crisis facing the country when they are released late April.
Amid the heightened concern, analysts are anticipating new measures to address China’s demographic challenges, including the launch of more retirement plans.
Beijing announced last week the monthly pension of its 120 million urban retirees would be raised 4.5 per cent on average this year, the 17th annual rise in a row. The monthly pension for about 160 million senior farmers, which averages about 170 yuan (US$26), is also expected to increase.
Authorities maintain there is adequate cash to cover the growing number of pensions. The national social security fund registered a reserve of about 6 trillion yuan (US$922.8 billion) last year.
But some researchers point to a huge financial black hole in the foreseeable future. 


The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) estimated in a 2019 report the pension reserve will run out by 2035 and the deficit could swell to 11 trillion yuan by 2050.
Some provinces with shrinking populations and slow economic growth, such as the northeastern province of Heilongjiang, have already reported pension shortfalls, forcing authorities to establish a national pool and cross-province allocation to guarantee timely payment.
The central bank is not at the forefront of fighting China’s demographic problem. Population policy is overseen by the National Health Commission, retirement is supervised by the Ministry of Human Resource and Social Security, and the Ministry of Finance is responsible for managing the national social security fund.
But given the financial risks, the PBOC is taking increasing interest.
What is China’s 2020 census, and why is it important?
On Tuesday, PBOC deputy governor Li Bo said at a Boao Forum for Asia panel discussion that China has “many resources” at its disposal to meet its retirement challenge. Li proposed using state capital, proceeds from the sale of state-owned land and even the issuance of 50-year Treasury bonds to solve the funding gap.
Some of the measures are already under way. State-owned enterprises have transferred 1.68 trillion yuan of capital to the national social security fund in the past three years.
Ding Shuang, chief Greater China economist at Standard Chartered Bank, said ageing posed no short-term threat to China’s monetary policy, but the central bank’s interest signalled concern over how falling fertility rates and an ageing workforce could dampen economic vigour and ratchet up government debt, a problem that Japan has faced over the past few decades.
 “It’s indeed an important issue, but it has no direct connection with monetary policy. At most, it reflects the broad interest and flexibility of central bank research,” he said.


Compared to the zero interest rate policy used by the Bank of Japan over the past two decades, the PBOC has vowed “normal” rates and a scaling back of its stimulus as the Chinese economy recovers from the coronavirus shock.
A fall in productivity due to demographic issues could be an obstacle for China’s target to double the size of the economy by 2035, which requires annual growth of at least 4.5 per cent over the next 15 years.
The PBOC research paper echoed recent comments by former central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, who argued China must switch away from a defined contribution pension plan, in which employees contribute the bulk of money, for the sake of financial sustainability and long-term productivity.
Last month, the central bank appointed a labour economist to advise on its monetary policy, the first outside voice since 1997.
Cai Fang, deputy president of CASS, said early this month China had reached its Lewis turning point, or the decline of the working age labour force, in 2010, putting an end to decades of double-digit growth. He was now warning of a “second turning point”.
The new [turning point] could cause growth to plunge and lead to insufficient demand
Cai Fang
“China’s population could peak before 2025,” he told an event organised by Caijing Magazine a week ago. “The new [turning point] could cause growth to plunge and lead to insufficient demand. It would generate an unfavourable impact on our push for consumption.”
China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 6.0 per cent in 2019 – before the economy was ravaged by the coronavirus pandemic – from 10.6 per cent a decade ago.
Beijing announced in its new five-year plan for 2021-25 it would extend the retirement age, which is 60 for men and 50 for most women. 
The CASS figures show the size of China’s pension system was 11.6 trillion yuan in 2019, equivalent to roughly 11.7 per cent of its GDP. The proportion was far lower than the OECD average of 49.7 per cent. 
About three quarters of pension plans are from government-backed schemes, while the private contribution plans are just debuting. 



China population: what’s driving central bank concern about the nation’s ageing workforce?

China’s low fertility rate and rapidly ageing population threatens to weigh on the pension system and productivity. Photo: Getty Images


China’s low fertility rate and rapidly ageing population threatens to weigh on the pension system and productivity. Photo: Xinhua

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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has been increasingly vocal about the potential economic consequences associated with the country’s demographic challenges 
Chief among its concerns are how China’s declining fertility rate and ageing population will weigh on the pension system and productivity



China’s central bank has been increasingly vocal about the economic consequences associated with the nation’s demographic challenges, making note of the potential effects on the pension system and productivity.
