bodyType

customContents

entityId

printArticlePageQuery

filter

article

body

urlAlias

articleSectionsContent

articleSeoArticle

articleSourceHeaderArticle

contentSchemaRenderContent

contentSubHeadlineContent

contentHeadlineContent

mainImagePrintArticleArticle

authorBlockPrintArticleArticle

contentSponsorTagContent

articlePianoPaywallContent

scmpYoutubeContent

hooksTrackPageViewArticle

query printArticlePageQuery(
  $entityId: String!
  $customContents: [CustomContentInput]
  $bodyType: BodyFormatTypeEnum
) {
  article(filter: {entityId: $entityId}) {
    entityId
    body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
      json
    }
    urlAlias
    ...articleSectionsContent
    ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4
    ...articleSourceHeaderArticle
    ...contentSchemaRenderContent
    ...contentSubHeadlineContent
    ...contentHeadlineContent
    ...mainImagePrintArticleArticle
    ...authorBlockPrintArticleArticle
    ...contentSponsorTagContent
    ...articlePianoPaywallContent
    ...scmpYoutubeContent
    ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle
    id
  }
}

fragment articlePianoPaywallContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent
}

fragment articleSectionsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection
      ...entityLink
      name
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment articleSeoArticle_3o8td4 on Article {
  ...hooksArticleSeoArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle
  entityId
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
  summary {
    text
  }
  subHeadline {
    text
  }
  body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {
    text
  }
  keywords
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  topics {
    name
    entityId
    id
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  images {
    style(filter: {style: "768x768"}) {
      url
    }
  }
  readingTime
}

fragment articleSourceHeaderArticle on Article {
  urlAlias
  ...entityLink
}

fragment authorBlockPrintArticleArticle on Article {
  ...defaultArticleDateContent
  ...authorNamesArticle
}

fragment authorNameAuthor on Author {
  ...entityLink
  name
  entityUuid
}

fragment authorNamesArticle on Article {
  authorLocations
  authors {
    entityId
    location
    ...authorNameAuthor
    id
  }
}

fragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  socialHeadline
  ...contentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
}

fragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
    id
  }
  sections {
    value {
      relatedNewsletters {
        ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
        id
      }
      id
    }
  }
  ... on Article {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...blockquoteQuoteContent
  ...imageContent
  ...inlineWidgetContent
  ...photoGalleryWidgetContent
  ...scmpYoutubeContent
}

fragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  shortUrl
  socialHeadline
  headline
}

fragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  subHeadline {
    json
  }
  summary {
    json
  }
  ...contentSchemaRenderContent
}

fragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent
}

fragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  __typename
  entityId
  entityUuid
  urlAlias
  urlRedirect {
    toUrl
    id
  }
  application {
    entityId
    id
  }
  ... on Section {
    fullSectionPath {
      entityId
      id
    }
    parentSection
  }
  ...helpersAppBarVariantBase
  ...helpersApplicationBase
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...helpersSectionContent
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
}

fragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {
  name
}

fragment helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle on Article {
  entityId
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  disableOffPlatformContent
  sponsorType
  published
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
}

fragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {
  flattenTypeIds
  liveArticle {
    status
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    paywallTypes {
      entityUuid
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        entityId
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {
  entityId
  name
  alternativeName
  description {
    text
  }
  summary {
    text
  }
  homepageDescription {
    text
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {
  authors {
    types
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    sponsor {
      ...sponsorTagSponsor
      name
      type
      id
    }
    id
  }
  ... on Article {
    sponsorType
  }
  ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent
}

fragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdDate
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
}

fragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle
  entityId
  headline
  socialHeadline
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
  images {
    generic_og: style(filter: {style: "og_image_scmp_generic"}) {
      url
    }
    styles(filter: {styles: ["og_image_posties_article", "og_postmag", "og_image_style", "og_image_scmp_analysis", "og_image_scmp_explainer", "og_image_scmp_editorial", "og_image_scmp_fact_check", "og_image_scmp_debate", "og_image_scmp_live", "og_image_scmp_obituary", "og_image_scmp_opinion", "og_image_scmp_review", "og_image_scmp_series", "og_image_scmp_generic"]}) {
      url
      style
    }
    type
  }
  urlAlias
}

fragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        name
        entityId
        description {
          text
        }
        id
      }
    }
    ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  }
  flag
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  ...hooksContentHelperContent
}

fragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle
  ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle
  ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle
  flag
}

fragment hooksPaywallPromiseContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
}

fragment hooksTrackPageViewArticle on Article {
  entityId
  publishedDate
  headline
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  entityUuid
}

fragment imageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  ...checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent
}

fragment inlineWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent
}

fragment mainImagePrintArticleArticle on Article {
  images {
    title
    url
    isSlideshow
    size_652x446: style(filter: {style: "652x446"}) {
      url
    }
  }
}

fragment photoGalleryDialogContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment photoGalleryWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...photoGalleryDialogContent
}

fragment scmpYoutubeContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  publishedDate
}

fragment sponsorTagSponsor on Sponsor {
  name
  type
  images {
    url
  }
}


sections

types

disableOffPlatformContent

sponsorType

published

headline

socialHeadline

authors

images

publishedDate

updatedDate

summary

subHeadline

keywords

topics

readingTime

authorLocations

entityUuid

Winston Mok

Donald Trump has “ordered” American companies by tweet to stop doing business with China. Even with the US president’s shifting whims, what if his wish were to come true?
In an extreme scenario, if US-China trade and US manufacturing in China were to grind to a halt – when US companies no longer had any business with or in China – what would be the implication for American consumers, its companies, workers and innovation?
US consumers would suffer considerably, with a narrower selection of shoddier goods costing more, driving up inflation.
Had Trump not delayed tariffs for the not-yet-targeted Chinese goods until mid-December, US consumers would have had a foretaste of US-China decoupling this Christmas.
Without the Chinese supply chain and the vast China market, many US companies would be displaced by non-US rivals. In decoupling, the US would not be isolating China, but itself, from the global production network.
Could Vietnam and Mexico replace China? Not for the breadth and depth of goods made in China, nor for the price, quality and value combination.
Smuggling into the US of otherwise legitimate consumer items would be rampant. Shopping trips to Canada and Mexico would become popular. US consumers would face a declining standard of living. The middle class and the working class would be hardest hit.




American companies, without access to the world’s most important supply chain, would lose out in competitiveness. In the global production system, China cannot be replicated even if there were 10 Vietnams working in concert over a long period.
Many American firms would see their market positions in China taken over by their German, Japanese, Korean or Chinese counterparts. Without the China market, some leading US companies would be greatly diminished, even if they could remain viable.
Many US workers, including those in the retail and manufacturing sectors, would lose their jobs. The days when Chinese manufacturing jobs could return to the US are long gone – many of those jobs cannot even stay in China, while workers are being replaced by robots in some cases.




Some Chinese jobs would go to other parts of Asia and Africa, often in Chinese-owned factories.
The US economy would become less innovative. From Boeing to Hollywood studios, US companies would be left with much-reduced revenues to support innovation.
Being denied access to China-made components would mean the US was not a viable start-up location for many hardware-based ventures.
Many start-ups already find the supply ecosystem in Shenzhen more effective than that of Silicon Valley. China and the likes of Singapore may become more attractive innovation hubs at the expense of the US.


The US owes its dynamism to attracting the best and brightest from the world to its open economy.
In decoupling from China, it would become a far less attractive destination for global talent – as it would cease to be a place where global resources may be effectively marshalled to facilitate innovation in many fields.
America would lose key ingredients which make it great. The US has some unassailable edges over China: radical innovation and draw for global talent.
A key motivation for recent American moves against China has been sustaining US economic dominance by containing China’s rise. Decoupling the US economy from China’s would have the opposite effect – by undermining its key advantages over China.




The impact of any such decoupling on China’s manufacturing would be huge.
Many Chinese companies, mostly smaller and weaker ones, may go out of business – resulting in a significant contraction of manufacturing capacities. With consolidation in many industries, only the stronger companies would remain.
Without access to US technologies, many Chinese firms would suffer, especially if no alternatives could be found in Europe or Asia. But that would only accelerate technology development in Chinese companies.
Who does the UN think will benefit the most from the US-China trade war?
In contrast with Americans, Chinese consumers would be affected little. They may face fewer food varieties and slightly higher food prices. With plenty of alternatives, from Australia to France, there may not be a revolt among the Chinese affluent class if they cannot drink Californian wine.
In fact, Chinese consumers may enjoy even lower prices, higher quality and a wider product range as China’s vast production capacities turn domestic.

....better off without them. The vast amounts of money made and stolen by China from the United States, year after year, for decades, will and must STOP. Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing..
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 23, 2019

The key divergence is between workers in the two countries. In the US, many high-end jobs would disappear while some low-end jobs may become available. US companies with good knowledge-based jobs, hitherto leveraging China’s supply chain and its vast market, would wither.
In China, many low-end jobs would vanish while more high-end jobs would be created. High unemployment in the immediate aftermath of decoupling would be followed by the creation of high-value jobs in due course.
More Fortune 500 firms worried about trade war, US Chamber says
While economic coupling has boosted China’s development, it has also kept the US on top. Decoupling would do the opposite.
In the context of a global slowdown or even recession, it may partially reverse the relative decline of Europe and Japan, and spread the growth among developing economies. More than slowing China for a time, it would hasten the US’ decline.




As the economies of US and China decouple, both nations would suffer tremendously but their destinies would diverge. One would face immediate quantitative contraction while the other would see long-term qualitative decline.
The reason is simple. With its unrivalled manufacturing base and vast market, China can hope to catch up with US technologically, albeit with high risks and uncertainties.
As a service-oriented economy, the US simply cannot replace, or find viable replacements for, China’s huge and uniquely competitive production machinery without taking major steps backwards.
China seeking moral high ground with WTO complaint against latest US tariffs
Without the Chinese supply chain and the vast China market, many US companies would be displaced by non-US rivals. In decoupling, the US would not be isolating China, but itself, from the global production network.
In a bifurcated world, the US would suffer long-term and sustained decline in its economic competitiveness and standard of living.
Winston Mok, a private investor, was previously a private equity investor


Trump wants US businesses to cut all ties with China: why that’s a lose-lose plan

US President Donald Trump arrives at a US military base in Houston, Texas, in May 2018. The US simply cannot replace, or find viable replacements for, China’s huge and uniquely competitive production machinery without taking major steps backwards. Photo: AFP

Opinion

Comment

News

Business

World

China

Economy


The loss of the huge Chinese market and supply chains would hit US firms and consumers hard. China’s strengths and a tech boost would see it bounce back, while service-oriented America would face long-term suffering and sustained decline



The loss of the huge Chinese market and supply chains would hit US firms and consumers hard. Its strengths and a tech boost would see China bounce back, while the service-oriented US would face long-term suffering and sustained decline.


The View

US-China relations

US-China trade war

Donald Trump

US-China tech war

US-China trade war: All stories

China economy

Trade

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column