How Europe is targeting Asia while tiptoeing around China tensions

Europe is taking great pains in its efforts to secure global influence to side with neither the US or China while pursuing ties with the rest of Asia
Economic, strategic and diplomatic interests mean Europe has a strong desire to have a say in ensuring a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific

Richard Heydarian

Published: 6:30am, 13 May 2024

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“History has repeatedly proven that any conflict can ultimately be resolved only through negotiation,” President Xi Jinping said during his visit to Europe, the first in five years. Carrying a message of peace and cooperation to Paris, he spoke of ongoing conflicts, notably Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, which he described as a “tragedy” and “a test of human conscience”.

With the Summer Olympics swiftly approaching, Xi underscored China’s willingness to work with France “to take the Paris Olympics as an opportunity to advocate a global ceasefire and cessation of war during the Games”, a statement that resonates with French President Emmanuel Macron’s call to make the Paris Games “a diplomatic moment of peace”.

Although taking an increasingly critical stance on Israel’s war conduct, Europe has largely been focused on the long drawn-out conflict in Ukraine. Macron pressed Xi to ensure China refrains from selling weapons and “strictly” controls the transfer of dual-use technology to Russia. With Russian President Vladimir Putin set to visit Beijing later this month, Macron called on Xi to exercise constructive influence on Moscow.

Overall, exchanges between Macron and Xi were warm and cordial. Nevertheless, Europe’s relations with China have undergone a qualitative shift in recent years. There have been growing disagreements not only over the conflict in Ukraine but also on matters of trade and technology, which have long been the glue of bilateral relations.

At the same time, Europe is not interested in joining a new Cold War against China, and neither is it in a position to economically decouple from China. Instead, Europe seeks to carve out its own strategic space through a principled multi-alignment strategy which protects its core values as well as facilitates robust and constructive relations with old and new powers in the Indo-Pacific. Europe wants to be a sovereign power rather than a vassal.

03:58

Emmanuel Macron thanks Xi Jinping for ‘commitment’ not to sell arms to Russia

It is hard to understate the transformation of Europe-China relations in the past decade. Just a decade ago, European powers such as pre-Brexit Britain actively courted Beijing and supported China-led initiatives such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Over the years, China has gained influence across Europe, with Italy joining the Belt and Road Initiative in 2019. In the Balkans and Eastern Europe, China has proved even more diplomatically successful by signing strategic cooperation agreements with many post-communist nations.

But Europe has been rankled by the combination of China’s emergence as a global technological power, its growing maritime assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific and its warming ties with anti-Western powers such as Russia.

Last year, Italy informed China that it was withdrawing from the Belt and Road Initiative. European carmakers have been threatened by the deluge of Chinese electric vehicles, and there are growing concerns that Beijing is offering military and technological assistance to Russia in the war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Europe is coming under growing pressure from the United States to “de-risk” from China, especially in cutting-edge technologies such as semiconductors. Sanctions and trade barriers are beginning to hamper once-thriving bilateral trade. For the European Union, China is a partner, but also an economic competitor and a systemic rival, underscoring structural frictions in bilateral relations. That is in addition to lingering tensions over human rights issues and allegations of Chinese influence operations in Europe.

It goes without saying that the 27 members of the EU, not to mention post-Brexit Britain, don’t share identical strategic views on China. Nevertheless, European powers, principally France and Germany, are seeking a distinct China strategy on three levels.

To begin with, key European nations are reluctant to join in any decoupling strategy against China. If anything, there is doubt over whether even a more modest “de-risking” approach is feasible or even desirable.

Despite facing stiff competition and the possibility of technological theft, major German automotive companies are deeply invested in the Chinese market. This is why German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was accompanied by a large business delegation during his recent visit to Beijing in spite of growing trade tensions.

For its part, France deeply relies on Chinese consumers for its luxury product exports. During Xi’s visit, Macron thanked his guest for “openness about the provisional measures toward French Cognac”.

09:45

How do France’s ambitions as a global leader figure in China-US relations?

Aside from their own economic dependence on China, key European powers have a direct interest in preventing a new cold war between Washington and Beijing. After all, Europe is still heavily dependent on US assistance to deal with Russia, most notably in Ukraine, so it can’t afford Washington being distracted by conflicts elsewhere.

Above all, Europe wants to preserve its own strategic autonomy and carve out its own path on the global stage. As Macron said last year, “Being an ally does not mean being a vassal … it doesn’t mean that we don’t have the right to think for ourselves.”

Accordingly, the European Union has adopted its own Indo-Pacific strategy, which aims to expand its strategic footprint in the world’s most dynamic region. Instead of siding with the US or China, major European powers are pursuing warmer ties with Asia’s other rising powers, namely India, South Korea and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

European powers have also begun to flex their muscles, with France, Germany and Britain conducting naval patrols in Asian waters. France is offering submarines and advanced weapons systems to Southeast Asian nations such as the Philippines, with both sides now pursuing a visiting forces agreement-style pact.

France has also conducted joint naval drills with the Philippines and the US in the South China Sea, underscoring Europe’s proactive defence diplomacy in Asia. Overall, Europe seeks to become an autonomous, constructive and consequential arbiter of a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific, where the future of the global order will be decided.

Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific, and the forthcoming Duterte’s Rise