Letters | US is showing symptoms of an empire in decline

Readers discuss the rise and fall of empires, Trump’s Gaza proposal, and the rationale behind Israel’s actions against Hamas

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US President Donald Trump waits outside of the West Wing before welcoming King Abdullah II of Jordan to the White House in Washington on February 11. Photo: AFP

Published: 11:30am, 16 Feb 2025

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US founding father Benjamin Franklin famously said that “nothing is certain except death and taxes”. Today, we might safely add one more certainty to this list: the inevitable decline of a great empire.

Ray Dalio’s book The Changing World Order charts the cyclical rise and fall of empires – and their currencies – alongside the emergence of new world orders. As an empire begins its decline, it often desperately clings to power, resorting to threats over diplomacy to solve problems. This leads to economic and military conflict, back-stabbing allies for economic advantage, and even pressuring countries that suggest moving away from the dominant currency. Does this sound familiar?

By threatening its neighbours, such as Mexico and Canada, with tariffs, despite the existence of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and intimidating Brics nations with possible punishment if they consider trading in currencies other than the US dollar, the United States is displaying clear signs of a nation in decline.

The US is using its military and economic might to maintain its global advantage and delay the inevitable. It makes one wonder: if you have allies like the US, who needs enemies?

According to Dalio, the US is estimated to be 75 per cent through its decline, with a margin of error of around 10 per cent. On Dalio’s chart of global gross domestic product share, the rise of China intersects with the decline of the US. This data is reinforced by the fact that, for the first time in history, the US is paying more in interest on its debt than it spends on the military.