Mixed messages undermine US-China rebuilding of people exchanges

China needs to reverse the atmosphere of intimidation felt by academics, journalists and businesses while the US must change its gruff approach

Rory Truex

Published: 9:30am, 18 Jun 2024

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For the past few months, it has looked as though there may be something of a spring thaw in the US-China relationship. Chinese diplomats have lauded the San Francisco vision, referencing the meeting last November between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which aimed to set guardrails on strategic competition and rebuild ties at the highest level.

Xi called for 50,000 American students to come to China in the next five years, sending China’s educational bureaucracy into a frenzy. He met high-level US business executives, first in San Francisco, then in Beijing months later.

The following months saw moderate progress and more diplomatic visits at the highest levels, including increased Chinese efforts to curb the flow of fentanyl precursors to the United States.

Panda diplomacy is back as well – Washington’s National Zoo just announced that giant pandas will be coming from China by the end of the year. Pandas may be of no strategic importance but in some way, they symbolise the tenor of the US-China relationship. The more pandas in American zoos, the more the two sides seem to be getting along.

Yet there is also something deeply incongruous about China’s diplomatic efforts of late.

Soon after having couples’ wine and cheese with French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife Brigitte in the Pyrenees, Xi rolled out the red carpet for Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing. Days later, the People’s Liberation Army encircled Taiwan in a series of “punishment” drills, warning new Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te that “those who play with fire will burn themselves”.

01:10

Beijing accuses Taiwan’s William Lai of sending ‘dangerous signals’ in inauguration speech

While there seems to be genuine interest on the Chinese side in rebuilding exchanges, there is an incongruity here as well. Foreign students are being welcomed back, but China continues to intimidate and sanction Western officials, academics and journalists it disagrees with.

Anecdotally, secondary questioning and other interrogations in China’s airports are not common but just frequent enough to cause concern. For all the efforts to win back the American business class, this population also faces unique risks.

China has passed a series of nebulous data security rules that govern international data transfers, with stiff (even criminal) penalties. Foreign businesses have been raided. None of this is helped by the fact that the Chinese government has warned its citizens that foreigners may be spies, amping up societal vigilance with a “if you see something, say something” approach.

Some of this mixed messaging may be a product of the decentralised nature of China’s political system, what China scholars often refer to as “fragmented authoritarianism”. We often assume that everything that happens in China is at the will of Xi himself but in truth, local and central government actors, along with different ministries and agencies, compete with each other to influence policy outcomes in ways that are murky and confusing.

This is especially true in the security space, where local governments and police are tasked with the maintenance of stability and often have considerable leeway in how they handle dissidents, protesters, civil society organisations, foreigners and other people they view as troublemakers.

03:47

‘Door to China-US relations will not be closed again’: Xi Jinping offers assurances to US businesses

At the moment, it seems China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs – the equivalent of the US State Department – is working towards restoring people-to-people ties and assuaging the concerns of foreigners, but its security apparatus may be derailing those efforts. Sometimes when we observe mixed messages, it’s really because different parts of the Chinese system are speaking.

If Xi is serious about re-engaging the Western world, he should be taking dramatic, meaningful steps that deviate from the standard party approach. There is no shortage of bold gestures. He can reopen the country to Western journalists, granting visas and access to our most important news outlets.

Beijing should also work to tamp down anti-American sentiment in the population, remove sanctions on US officials and extend invitations to scholars that have been formally or informally blacklisted. Instead of branding the Taiwanese leader a “shameful traitor”, Beijing can resume regular diplomatic communication and invite Lai for talks, without the usual preconditions.

On the US side, the Biden administration needs more self-awareness about its own mixed messaging. To stave off attacks that he is “soft” on China, Biden has taken a decidedly gruff approach. American diplomatic efforts seem to be centred around conveying grievances to the Chinese government and issuing stern warnings.

02:35

US President Biden defends calling Chinese leader Xi Jinping a ‘dictator’

It is unclear what American officials are offering China, if indeed it is taking a course different from what it appears. There seems to be no carrot to counterbalance the stick, and Chinese officials must be wondering what they can gain from the relationship at all. Other than high-level diplomatic meetings, the Biden administration has done little to rebuild people-to-people exchanges with China, one of the few areas clearly in the interests of both sides.

In his San Francisco address last year, Xi emphasised the familiar themes of peace, development and mutual prosperity, going much further than President Joe Biden in this regard. Xi closed by noting: “The ultimate wish of our two peoples for exchanges and cooperation will not change [ …] Let us galvanise the Chinese and American peoples into a strong force to renew China-US friendship, advance China-US relations and make even greater contributions to world peace and development!”

These are wonderful words, but to be taken seriously, they need to be supported by more meaningful action.

Rory Truex is an associate professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University. His research and teaching focus on Chinese politics