Opinion | Russia-North Korea pact is the price of China’s ‘strategic patience’

Could China have foreseen that North Korea’s advanced nuclear weapons and proliferation efforts would intensify to become a critical factor in global insecurity, affecting not only the Korean peninsula and East Asia but also the Indo-Pacific and further?

Could China have foreseen that North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and weapons production would become a pivotal external factor in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, severely undermining China’s global security strategy?

Could China have predicted the fundamental changes to East Asia’s security structure after North Korea agreed to a “comprehensive strategic partnership” with Russia?

Unlikely. Focused on North Korea’s strategic value as a buffer state, China has consistently shown a lack of ability and willingness to deter or dismantle Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities. This stance, a Chinese adaptation of “strategic patience”, has had a severely adverse impact on China’s interests.

The six-party talks of the 2000s, which tried to negotiate the end of North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme, ultimately collapsed due to conflicting interests, Pyongyang’s deception and strategic mistrust among the other five: South Korea, the US, Japan, China and Russia.