‘City killer’ asteroid’s chance of hitting Earth increases to 3.1%: Nasa
The updated figure makes 2024 YR4 the most threatening space rock ever recorded by modern forecasting
An asteroid that could level a city now has a 3.1 per cent chance of striking Earth in 2032, according to Nasa data released on Tuesday – making it the most threatening space rock ever recorded by modern forecasting.
Despite the rising odds, experts said there was no need for alarm. The global astronomical community was closely monitoring the situation and the James Webb Space Telescope was set to fix its gaze on the object, known as 2024 YR4, next month.
“I’m not panicking,” said Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the non-profit Planetary Society.
“Naturally when you see the percentages go up, it doesn’t make you feel warm and fuzzy and good,” he added, but explained that as astronomers gather more data, the probability is likely to edge up before rapidly dropping to zero.
2024 YR4 was first detected on December 27 last year by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile.
Astronomers estimate its size to be between 40 and 90 metres (130 and 300 feet) wide, based on its brightness. Analysis of its light signatures suggested it has a fairly typical composition, rather than being a rare metal-rich asteroid.
