Analysis | Ukraine war: Belgorod incursion may stretch Russia’s defences
- Russia said it defeated insurgent groups that crossed the border from Ukraine, killing dozens of fighters
- Two armed groups claim responsibility as Kyiv parodies past Kremlin denials of military involvement
A two-day incursion from Ukraine into Russia’s western borderlands could force the Kremlin to divert troops from front lines as Kyiv prepares a major counteroffensive, and deal Moscow a psychological blow, according to military analysts.
Though Kyiv has denied any role, the biggest cross-border raid from Ukraine since Russia invaded 15 months ago was almost certainly coordinated with Ukraine’s armed forces as it prepares to attempt to recapture territory, the experts added.
“The Ukrainians are trying to pull the Russians in different directions to open up gaps. The Russians are forced to send reinforcements,” said Neil Melvin, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
Ukraine says it plans to conduct a major counteroffensive to seize back occupied territory, but Russia has built sprawling fortifications in its neighbour’s east and south in readiness.
The incursion took place far from the epicentre of fighting in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region and around 160km (100 miles) from the front lines in the northern Kharkiv region.
“They’ll have to respond to this and put troops there and then have lots of troops all along the border area, even though that may not be the way the Ukrainians are coming,” Melvin said.
