Ukraine war: in Russia’s nuclear brinkmanship, weapons leave room for warning
- Tactical nuclear arms would take time to prepare for use, giving the Kremlin a tool for signalling the West
- The US has warned of a ‘catastrophic’ response to a nuclear attack, but hasn’t spelled out what that would mean
As Vladimir Putin’s game of chicken with the US and its allies over Ukraine escalates into a new round of nuclear threats, the smaller weapons that his officials have called on him to use may provide vital hours or even days of warning.
While Russia’s long-range missiles and bombers are kept on constant alert, ready to fire in just minutes to ensure they aren’t destroyed by a pre-emptive strike, lower-yielding tactical weapons are locked up in about a dozen warehouses across Russia and it would take time to transport them to launchers.
“At a certain level of readiness, weapons are taken out of storage facilities and moved to some other place, for days if necessary. This would be detected by satellites or other means,” said Pavel Podvig, a nuclear security expert at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva. That would be exactly the point.
So far, US and European officials have said there’s no sign of any such preparations and the nuclear threats have remained purely rhetorical.
But as Russian forces steadily lose ground to a Ukrainian counteroffensive – including territory the Russian president formally claimed as his own last week – the Kremlin has again sought to sow fear with hints that further escalation may involve arms that haven’t been used in war since 1945.
The threats are part of a broad attempt by the Kremlin to intimidate the US and Europe into cutting support for Ukraine and forcing Kyiv into negotiations on Moscow’s terms.
