Delta coronavirus variant has 60 per cent transmission edge over Alpha, UK expert says

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson said that up to a quarter of the Delta variant’s transmissibility edge over Alpha might come from its immune escape from vaccines

Boris Johnson has said that England’s full reopening from lockdown, set for June 21, could be pushed back due to the spread of the Delta variant

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Commuters enter Oxford Circus London Underground station in London. Photo: AFP

Published: 11:10pm, 9 Jun 2021Updated: 1:27am, 10 Jun 2021

The Delta coronavirus variant of concern, first identified in India, is believed to be 60 per cent more transmissible than the Alpha variant which was previously dominant in Britain, a prominent UK epidemiologist said on Wednesday.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that England’s full reopening from Covid-19 lockdown, pencilled in for June 21, could be pushed back due to the rapid spread of the Delta variant.

Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London told reporters that estimates of Delta’s transmission edge over Alpha had narrowed, and “we think 60 per cent is probably the best estimate”.

Ferguson said that modelling suggested any third wave of infections could rival Britain’s second wave in the winter – which was fuelled by the Alpha variant first identified in Kent, southeast England.

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But it was unclear how any spike in hospitalisation would translate into a rise in deaths, as more detail was needed on how well the vaccine protects against serious illness from Delta.