Coronavirus: Britain could hit herd immunity by Monday, scientists say
- Almost three-quarters of the population now have antibodies against the virus, either through vaccination or past infection, according to researchers
- Many other scientists think Britain is much further from herd immunity than the University College London’s model suggests, however
According to researchers at University College London, almost three-quarters of the population will have antibodies against the virus by then, either through vaccination or past infection, they estimate.
Britain has already seen a plunge in new cases and deaths, and the government will relax restrictions, including on outdoor dining, on Monday. Those developments have fuelled hopes that the nation will soon shake off its pandemic shackles.
Many other scientists think Britain is much further from herd immunity than the University College London’s model suggests. It has come under fire from some who say it overestimates the strength of vaccines and does not adequately account for waning immunity and new virus variants. No more than 40 per cent of the country has protection from Covid-19, according to estimates by Imperial College London.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty about the length of immunity, both vaccine immunity and natural immunity,” said Anne Cori, a lecturer at Imperial. “If immunity is waning, you might lose herd immunity after you reach it.”
Virologists describe herd immunity as the point at which a virus struggles to make inroads into a society because of high immunity levels, either through vaccination or previous exposure to the pathogen. If it is elusive for Britain, for most of the rest of the world it is still a distant dream. Experts agree that speeding up vaccinations is the surest way to bring the virus under control, and in that regard Britain is out in front of most other nations.
Even so, European nations will likely lag behind Britain in fully vaccinating 75 per centof their populations, according to analysis by Airfinity Ltd, a London-based research firm. While the UK is set to reach that level by early August, Germany will not get there until September and France until October, the firm’s current estimates show.
What is herd immunity? And can it stop the coronavirus?
The European Commission is looking to ensure a steady supply of vaccines in coming years, to avoid the shortages that have hobbled immunisation campaigns in the bloc.
Shots may be needed for years to come, especially if the virus continues to mutate and circulates at lower levels, much like the flu.
“Longer-term, it’s going to be more like an epidemic where there are sometimes outbreaks and you’ll need to manage that,” said Matt Linley, a senior analyst at Airfinity.