Will UK PM Boris Johnson survive Brexit, resign or be booted from Number 10?
- Young UK Conservatives call prime minister ‘incompetent’ and say it’s ‘time for him to go’
- Johnson’s critics have hammered Britain’s leader over his handling of Brexit and the pandemic
For months, there has been speculation that Johnson’s days in Number 10 Downing Street could be numbered because of his government’s haphazard management of the coronavirus pandemic that has created regional divisions in the country. The UK also has the highest coronavirus death toll in Europe.
But a tweet this week from the Manchester Young Conservatives declaring Johnson “incompetent” and “time for him to go” appeared to confirm that all was not fine among the country’s Tories.
Brexit deadline: is Boris Johnson bluffing about walking away without a deal?
Some observers have wondered if Johnson could resign, like former PM David Cameron did following the 2016 Brexit referendum, or if he would be pushed out like his political idol, the late Margaret Thatcher. There was also a scenario in which Johnson survived a rebellion by disgruntled members of his backbench and soldiered on as leader for months, possibly through years of UK economic turmoil.
“Whenever a leader wins a convincing general election against expectations, that usually stands them in good stead for a long time,” said Christopher Painter, a professor emeritus at Birmingham City University’s School of Social Sciences.
“What has destabilised Johnson is the Covid crisis that has come out of the blue and tested his competence to the limit. He’s had no clear strategy, veering between complacency and panic – and that is clearly chipping away at his credibility.”
01:58
Coronavirus: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson leaves hospital as UK deaths surpass 10,000
Johnson’s tired demeanour since his own bout with Covid-19 suggested the former newspaper columnist was struggling with the demands of the top job he long dreamed of.
A report in the Times’ Diary Column in August said Johnson would stand down in six months because of lingering Covid-related health problems. The source was apparently the father-in-law of Johnson’s closest aide Dominic Cummings.
An article in the Daily Mirror last weekend claimed that with several children that need financial support, Johnson has complained to friends he can’t live on his £150,000 (US$197,000) prime minister salary. He has reportedly looked on with envy at his predecessor Theresa May earning lucrative money on the after-dinner speech circuit.
Britain’s ‘world-beating’ coronavirus testing struggles as second wave looms
Johnson’s unpopularity appeared to grow this week after a row with the mayor of Greater Manchester, Labour’s Andy Burnham, over a new financial package to help businesses in the northern city cope with tighter lockdown requirements.
“Boris has lied about helping us in the north. It’s time for him to go,” tweeted the Manchester Young Conservatives. “He’s not a Conservative. He’s got no backbone or genuine deals. He’s incompetent. He has now lost all the seats we worked so hard in Greater Manchester to win.” The tweet was subsequently deleted.
The raft of new Conservative MPs from the north of England who rode the wave of Brexit to secure victory for Johnson in the traditional Labour heartlands of the north, are for now, mostly staying loyal to Johnson.
“If there were only a year to go before a general election, I suspect Johnson would be in really serious trouble,” said Tim Bale, politics professor at Queen Mary University of London. “But with four years to go, and no signs yet that the Conservatives are falling consistently or hopelessly behind Labour, the mood on the backbenches will be uneasy, restive even – but his colleagues won’t be running around like headless chickens just yet.”
The Conservative Party has a reputation for ruthlessly disposing of its leaders. In 1990, party machinations to replace Thatcher as leader drove the Iron Lady as she was known, to tears.
Johnson’s predecessor May resigned after she was seriously undermined in her attempts to secure a Brexit deal with Brussels, not least by Johnson.
Brexit is imploding and looks like Boris Johnson is engineering it
One of those who could become Johnson’s serious challenger is the current Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, the 40-year-old son of an Indian doctor and a former Goldman Sachs banker. Sunak is married to Akshata Murthy, the daughter of Indian billionaire Narayana Murthy, founder of the tech giant Infosys.
At the moment, Sunak is a popular politician, not least because he delivered the furlough schemes to keep paying people during the country’s coronavirus lockdown. Sunak and Johnson were reported to be at odds over further lockdowns, as it would be the chancellor who has to manage the country’s growing debt.
The economic turmoil that would come with a no-deal Brexit would be Sunak’s problem as well.
Another potential rival for Johnson’s job is the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Michael Gove, another former journalist. In June 2016, Gove, resigned from his role as campaign manager in Johnson’s first leadership bid on the morning the latter was due to declare, and announced his own candidacy. Gove finished third, but has support among Brexiteers in the party.
“The big question is whether [Johnson’ can survive all this in 2021 – if he gets through the following six months then he may stagger on to face Starmer in a general election in 2024,” Painter said. “There are so many pieces in the air, and how they descend depends on the cumulative effects.”
‘WheresBoris’ trends on Twitter as critics snipe at UK PM for taking holiday
“It seems unlikely that Johnson, after spending virtually his whole life plotting to be PM, will opt to throw in the towel after just 18 months or so,” Bale said. “Most occupants of Number 10 have to be dragged out of there kicking and screaming. Is he really so very different?”
