Hong Kong university predicts 1 million deaths if mainland China reopens without fourth Covid booster, antivirals and social-distancing curbs
- If country reopens fully between December and next January, healthcare systems across all provinces will be unable to handle infection surge, study says
- Researchers recommend Beijing roll out a mass vaccination programme for fourth dose 30 to 60 days before reopening
Nearly 1 million people in mainland China could die from Covid-19 if the country fully reopens without ensuring a mass fourth-dose vaccination scheme, plenty of antiviral drugs and a raft of social-distancing measures, a University of Hong Kong study has predicted.
Researchers, which included former university medical faculty dean Professor Gabriel Leung, wrote in the study that strategies to avoid an overwhelmed healthcare system and a high fatality rate were “urgently needed” after the country eased its zero-Covid policies last week.
“We first consider the status quo without fourth-dose vaccination, antivirals and public health and social measures, and epidemics are simultaneously seeded in all provinces,” the authors of the study wrote.
“In this case, reopening at the status quo would result in a cumulative mortality burden of 684 per million.”
With a population of 1.41 billion as of 2020, there would be about 965,000 deaths, based on the Post’s calculations. The official Covid-19 death toll stands at 5,253.
