Hong Kong's first 'flu forecasts' to predict timing and scale of outbreaks just like the weather, HKU scientists say
Study by Hong Kong scientists will help pinpoint peak of flu season up to three weeks in advance, benefitting the public and health officials
Hong Kong will soon be able to predict the timing and intensity of a flu outbreak as accurately as the weather, thanks to a groundbreaking study by scientists at the University of Hong Kong and Columbia University in the United States.
The city's first flu forecasts will be able to pinpoint the peak of an outbreak three weeks in advance with accuracy as high as 93 per cent, said Dr Eric Lau Ho-yin, assistant professor at HKU's school of public health.
"These forecasts provide information on lead times that can be valuable for the public and health officials," Lau told the .
"The public can choose to get a flu vaccine to protect themselves against infection before the peak season comes, while the government can anticipate how to plan health policies."
Lau said he expected the forecasts could be put into use this autumn, before the city is hit by the winter flu peak.
Hong Kong has seen a decrease in the number of flu cases this week after reaching the summer peak in late June to early July.
Between June 12 and 29, there were 173 cases of influenza requiring admission to intensive care, of which 127 patients died, according to the city's Centre for Health Protection.
